NFL Prime Time Picks Conference Finals
Second to last NFL Sunday of the season. It’s good that we’re here, but its bittersweet knowing that it’s nearly over.
The penultimate weekend of the NFL season presents ‘Championship Sunday’, where the four remaining teams will battle it out for their place in Super Bowl LVIII.
The divisional round saw three out of the four favourites progress in the shape of Baltimore, San Francisco and Detroit, while Kansas City avenged their early season loss to the Bills in an intriguing contest in Buffalo.
With both number 1 seeds persisting and the Lions and Chiefs proving formidable outfits, it’s fair to say we’ve got the four best and most deserving teams remaining.
Who’s going to Super Bowl 58? Find out who we’re backing below…
AFC Championship: Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens
The AFC Championship Game, or as TV personality and loyal Chiefs fan Nick Wright refers to it; the ‘Arrowhead Invitational’, has been relocated to Baltimore for the 2023 season.
The first ever rendition of this game was back 1970 in the same city, where the number 1 seeded Baltimore Colts defeated the AFC West champions Oakland Raiders in a score of 27-17.
The Colts ended up winning the Super Bowl that year, so 50+ years on, Ravens’ fans will be hoping that exact same sequence can resurface and grant them their third Super Bowl title.
It feels ever so strange that this game is taking place outside of Kansas City, as Andy Reid’s team had played host to the decider for five-years straight from 2018 to 2023.
To show you the consistency of Mahomes and Reid, last week was the formers first ever road playoff game and boy, did he ever live up to it.
The reigning league MVP produced a stat line of 17/23, 215yds and 2 TDs to fend off Josh Allen and the Bills for the third time in four years in the playoffs.
Thanks to the win, Mahomes is now 13-3 in the post-season with a win percentage of 81%, ranking number 1 amongst quarterbacks (with 10 or more starts) all-time.
The pair traded field goals in the first quarter before Josh Allen ran his way in for a touchdown in the second, allowing the Bills to strike the first true blow of the night.
A critical stop from Buffalo’s defense forced another Harrison Butker kick, but the Chiefs showed their resilience by marching down the field and answering with a Travis Kelce score on their next possession.
Allen’s second touchdown of the night gave the Bills a 17-13 lead at the half, but KC were able to answer on the first drive out thanks to another Kelce score, that was spearheaded by a marvellous catch by Valdes-Scantling down the sideline.
The second of two was the 16th post-season touchdown connection between Mahomes and Kelce, seeing them leapfrog Brady and Gronk to number one in that category all-time.
The Bills answered back with a score of their own after a remarkable effort by Khalil Shakir that was celebrated like no other on the night, but it was all downhill from there.
Another magnificent throw by Mahomes to MVS, along with some ample ground and pound by Isiah Pacheco allowed the latter to score, giving the Chiefs a 27-24 lead in the fourth.
A goal-line fumble by the Chiefs saved what was a lacklustre fake-punt attempt by McDermott’s team from the previous sequence, which allowed the Bills the opportunity to level the game with a Tyler Bass field goal with 1:43 left on the clock.
Bass’ kick however, was launched wide right of the post, sending the Chiefs to the AFC championship game.
Just like most great teams, the Chiefs relied on some luck to swing their way, with Stefon Diggs’ drop also viewed by many as a significant moment in the game.
It would probably be an overreaction to say it was ‘vintage Mahomes’, but the conservative game management, patience and the ability to lean on a young and aggressive defense when it mattered most was clearly the key to victory.
Since 2018, Mahomes is now 8-2 in the playoffs when trailing by 7+ at any time in the game.
To give you an idea of how difficult that is, the rest of the league are 13-60 in that time.
Of course, you cannot doubt Mahomes’ character and conviction when trailing, but against this Ravens team, you daren’t fall too far behind.
Baltimore is appearing in their first AFC title game since 2012 and a first for the sensationally talented Lamar Jackson.
The MVP-elect showed zero rust after nearly three weeks off before lacing up in a rematch of week 1 against the Texans last Saturday night.
John Harbaugh’s team were more than a match for surefire rookie of the year CJ Stroud and a young Houston team that appeared to be playing with house-money all year.
Although the scoreline read 34-10, the first half was far from straightforward for the number one seed, as the Texans defense were able to frustrate Lamar for large parts throughout.
A long-distant Justin Tucker kick was matched by one from Kody Fairbairn in the muzzling rain to get both teams off the floor in the first.
Jackson then connected with Nelson Agholor in the endzone after some effective downhill running by the 27-year-old QB, which give the Ravens a 10-3 lead midway through the second quarter.
The game then burst into life after Texans WR Steven Sims Jr. returned Jordan Stout’s punt to the house to tie proceedings 10-10 at the half.
Unfortunately for DeMeco Ryans’ team however, the Ravens came to play in the second half, as Lamar recorded two touchdown runs of his own, along with finding backup tight-end Isaiah Likely to cap-off a 24-point home victory.
Despite the awesome performance by Todd Monken’s offense, a lot of the credit must go to the defense and their capacity to slow down Stroud and keep them off the board in the final two quarters.
Although Mike Mcdonald’s unit did not record any turnovers or sacks, the pass rush of Clowney, Smith and Van Noy, along with Patrick Queen’s ability to cover every blade of grass was apparent.
The victory capped off Lamar’s second playoff win in his young career, with many ready to jump on the narrative that the former Louisville QB is only built for the regular season.
Speaking of regular season, that is where all of Jackson’s battles with his counterpart have taken place, with this weekend representing the pairs first (and probably not last) post-season matchup.
Mahomes boasts a healthy 3-1 record over Jackson, but the loss did indeed happen at AT&T Bank Stadium, where the two will face off on Sunday in this mouth-watering clash.
It’s expected that tight-end Mark Andrews will make his long-awaited return to the lineup after being activated from injury-reserve last week and that will only help the Ravens’ chances.
Despite an impressive victory last weekend, Zay Flowers was Baltimore’s most sufficient target and only accumulated 41 receiving yards.
The game was clearly won by the defense along with Lamar’s ability to scramble having produced another 100yd rushing performance, and although Isaiah Likely is an adequate backup, the return of Andrews is a massive positive for this team.
The Chiefs on the other hand will have to coach another perfect game, and while they were able neutralise Buffalo in the pass game, Allen still managed 70+ yards and 2 TDs on the ground.
It’s also important to note that Kansas City were up against a rather bruised Buffalo defense and they’re facing a much more buttoned up and healthier unit on this occasion.
It’s hard betting against Mahomes in the playoffs, but for these reasons we’re siding with the Ravens in an epic encounter.
Prediction: Chiefs 27 Ravens 30
NFC Championship: Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49ers
1991 was the last time a Detroit Lions team took the field in a conference final.
Since then, their opponents, San Francisco, have been to 10.
The history books tell us this is a David vs. Goliath matchup, but in today’s game, it’s a lot closer than most people could ever imagine.
Dan Campbell’s Lions have been this year’s Cinderella story in the NFL and are becoming every neutral fan’s second team outside of their own (of course).
From the depths of despair in his first season as head coach with a record of 3-13-1, to potential Super Bowl champions in 3-and-a-half years in one of the quickest turnarounds in the sport’s history.
The redemption arc of quarterback Jared Goff is another inspiring story, after being traded from the LA Rams because he ‘wasn’t good enough’, to dumping that very same team out in the first round this year.
That performance a few weeks back was quickly supported by their divisional round triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers only a few days ago, in a game that pushed Campbell’s players to the absolute limit.
Both teams traded field goals in the first quarter before Detroit’s Josh Reynolds scored the opening touchdown of the game midway through quarter number two.
After a missed Chase McLoughlin field goal, Baker Mayfield and co. managed to rally thanks to the ever-reliable Mike Evans’, who provided two major receptions in the lead up to Cade Otton’s score, that sent both teams into the half tied 10-apiece.
It was the Lions who came out swinging though, as Reynolds, this time Craig, powered into the endzone on 4th-and-goal to restore Detroit’s lead back to seven.
Baker and the Bucs would not lie down however, as the former number one overall pick had one of the more impressive drives in his career to date before dumping off to Rachaad White to even things out once again.
But this Lions team is not like those of the past, as rookie RB Jamyr Gibbs showed the heart of one after his 31-yard run to the house put the Lions on top yet again.
Gibbs was once again instrumental in the following drive, which turned out to be the dagger in the heart of Todd Bowles’ side, as star receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown got in on the action to put daylight between the teams.
Still though, the Bucs reassembled and put together another long drive, this time ending in a Mike Evans touchdown to leave the score at 31-23.
The failed decision to go for two was a controversial one, but in the end, it didn’t matter, as Tampa’s final drive ended with Baker forcing the ball into coverage, only for linebacker Derrick Barnes to effectively seal the game with an interception.
Detroit have now double the amount of playoff wins this season than they had acquired during the previous 66, which shows just how peculiar football success is in this city.
Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson, who is expecting to be one of the most sought out individuals in the league this offseason, has proven his worth a hundred times over in the past few weeks, and they’ll deeply miss him should he decide to move on.
The win seen Jared Goff take his playoff record to a splendid 5-3, but it’s fair to say that both sides of the ball will have to step it up a notch should they want to become the first Lions team to see a Super Bowl.
On the other hand, the 49ers will feel slightly concerned with their divisional game performance at home to the Green Bay Packers, in spite of the win.
The number one seed in the NFC has shown some slight chinks in the armour over the past few weeks, none more so than the standout defeat on Christmas night to the Ravens.
Last week was perhaps another show of complacency, but in the end, they got the job done over a red-hot Packers outfit.
Brock Purdy threw for 252yds and a TD in the win, but many felt he looked relatively off from the get-go.
As they did the week prior, Green Bay accepted to receive the first kick-off and were able to put points on the board early thanks to an Anders Carlson field goal.
Tragedy then struck for the Niners after elusive WR Deebo Samuel was forced off with a shoulder injury, leaving an early spanner in the works for Kyle Shanahan’s offensive plans.
Green Bay had a chance to add another field goal, instead electing to go for it at the 49ers 30-yard-line, which was thwarted by the San Francisco defense.
It took Purdy’s lob to George Kittle in the endzone midway through the second quarter for San Francisco to land their first points of the night after spells of frustration provided by the Packers’ young defense.
The Niners had another chance to add more points before the half, but Jake Moody’s kick was blocked by Packers DE Colby Wooden, leaving it a close 7-6 at half-time.
Green Bay was also able to land the first blow of the second half, after the Niners’ blown coverage on defense allowed Jordan Love to fire to a wide-open Bo Melton at the back of the endzone.
It was clear at this point that star RB Christian McCaffrey had decided to take matters into his own hands, as his 39-yard run ended in the Niners’ second touchdown of the night.
But after Keyshawn Nixon’s impressive kick-off return had set Jordan Love and company in prime position, the Packers came back with a well worked play to the outside for rookie TE Tucker Kraft to open his account.
With score set at 21-17, the Packers regained control of possession after a few San Francisco no shows and managed to set themselves up with an Anders Carlson field-goal, that would have bestowed a safety blanket for LaFleur’s team.
However, Carlson’s kick fell victim to the elements and tailed left of the posts, allowing Brock Purdy to hand the ball off to McCaffrey at the other end to seal a 24-21 victory.
The victory sees Kyle Shanahan return to the NFC championship for the fourth time in five years and he will certainly be looking for retribution having lost the previous two.
Brock Purdy will also have the chance to erase his demons after suffering that colossus shoulder injury that seen him come off injured in Philadelphia last year, this time in his own backyard.
As we’ve mentioned before though, it’s going to take a much better performance to see off this slippery Lions group, and with the injury to Deebo, we’re not sure they can.
The Lions offense is currently firing on all cylinders and have just as good (perhaps better) weapons than what San Francisco have at their own disposal.
Detroit also finished the season as the number two ranked defense against the run, meaning if anyone has the tools to shut down McCaffrey and force Purdy into throwing, it’s probably this unit.
Albeit the underdog status, we feel that the Lions are riding the crest of a wave right now, and depending on the health of Deebo, we’re willing to take a shot on Detroit.
Prediction: Lions 34 49ers 31