NFL PrimeTime Picks: Super Bowl LVIII
157 days. 284 games. 30 teams down. 2 remain.
Going off my Championship game predictions a couple of weeks ago, I wouldn’t blame you for disbelieving me when I say… it’s Super Bowl week!
The 2023 season finishes with Super Bowl LVIII in Las Vegas, where the reigning champion Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in a clash of the titans.
The tie sees a rematch of Super Bowl LIV in Miami from almost four years ago, where the Chiefs saw off a 49ers team led by Jimmy Garoppolo, to a scoreline of 31-20.
Mahomes crowned the first of his two Super Bowl victories with a fourth-quarter comeback that night, but despite his MVP achievement, was outplayed for much of the game.
The current regular season MVP will become the youngest quarterback to ever reach a fourth Super Bowl when he laces up on Sunday night and will be hoping for a performance much like last year’s to tie in with the occasion.
On the other side, we have the Niners, who are led by non-other than the 2022 Mr. Irrelevant in Brock Purdy, who has quashed any reservations regarding whether he is suitable to hold the role of a ‘franchise quarterback’ this post-season.
All will be revealed, including; venue details, interesting facts, match statistics, and final predictions below…
The Occasion: Venue, Kick-off time, HT Show
Super Bowl LVIII will kick-off at approximately 11:30pm Irish time, which translates to 6:30pm eastern time (US) and 3:30pm local time (Las Vegas).
Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada is the scene for the big game, as the city known as ‘The Entertainment Capital of the World’, or also commonly referred to as ‘Sin City’, will host its first ever Super Bowl.
The stadium itself holds a maximum capacity of 65,000, was first opened in 2020 and is the second most expensive stadium on the planet, only behind So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood, California.
Although it’s a multi-purpose dome that is fit for hosting many sporting and non-sporting events, it is most known to be the home of the Las Vegas Raiders, who is non-other than the rivals of the returning champions; Kansas City Chiefs.
This year’s half-time show will be performed by eight-time Grammy award winning artist, Usher, with many also flirting with the idea of a surprise appearance from Taylor Swift (we’ll see) …
Las Vegas is a city often associated with gambling, partying, marriage and violence, particularly aligned with the catchphrase; ‘what happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas’.
The city’s ties with sport knows no bounds, as Vegas has become the home-hub to major combat episodes such as the UFC and boxing, as well as the world poker series.
Now, they’ll add America’s most anticipated sporting extravaganza to that ever-growing list.
How we got here
After all the pre-game talk, sound of the anthems and coin-toss pageantry is behind us, the two teams will finally take the stage to see who takes home the Vince Lombardi Trophy.
The Chiefs are attempting to be first team since the 2005 New England Patriots and the eighth franchise to record back-to-back Super Bowl victories when all’s said and done on Sunday night.
Andy Reid’s team secured the franchises’ third title when they overcame the Philadelphia Eagles in Phoenix last year and will enter this year’s edition with the same tag as 2023; underdogs.
Kansas City have maintained the underdog status in three of their last four post-season appearances and have continuously proved sceptics wrong by performing to an even higher-level when written off.
Having struggled mightily throughout the regular season with receiving drops, difficulties on the O-line, offensive frailties and the apparent aging of their star tight end, this team should simply never be overlooked come January time.
Speaking of that ‘aging tight end’ in Travis Kelce, who now leads the all-time list of play-off receptions after his 11 on the day against the Ravens, is proving yet again to be an unstoppable force for opposing teams.
Many (including myself) considered Baltimore’s high-power offense and stout defense to be too much for Mahomes and company pre-AFC Championship game, but boy were we made to look silly (again).
Although John Harbaugh and OC Todd Monken came under huge scrutiny in their reluctance to run the ball, Reid’s team deserves a lot of credit for their ability to take and early lead before game-managing their way to victory on the road.
The Chiefs offense didn’t put up a single point during the second half in Baltimore, and at times seemed maybe too conservative in their play calling.
But just like many times throughout this season, Steve Spagnuolo’s young defense provided a stern safety blanket that was able to frustrate Lamar and force the MVP-elect into some bad decisions.
The victory means since being named starter, Mahomes has appeared in four out of the six Super Bowls that have taken place in that short period of time and there is an argument to be made that this is his most impressive run to date.
Coach Reid and his star-QB were all praise for their young defense after the game, but also reiterated that whatever team came out of the NFC would be a different challenge all-together, on the most important Sunday of the year.
That team ended up being the San Francisco 49ers, who despite their wobbly start, managed to steady the ship in a comeback win over everyone’s favourite second team; the Detroit Lions in the NFC Championship game.
The Niners slumped to 24-7 deficit at the half but were able to turn to their star man Christian McCaffrey once again, along with the return of the elusive Deebo Samuel which saw them run out three-point winners.
Much like the AFC Championship game, this one was full of questionable coaching decisions as well, with Lions’ frontman Dan Campbell electing to go for it on two occasions when chip shot field goals were on the table.
In the end, those points would have won the game for Detroit, but hindsight is a wonderful thing.
There was no way that Kyle Shanahan was going to lose three NFC Championship games in a row, and the opportunity to avenge the ghosts of Super Bowl LIV were not going to slip through 49er fingers.
According to the betting books, San Francisco have been favoured against all twenty opponents this year and are the first team to accomplish this feat since the Patriots in 2017.
The loss of DeMeco Ryans to the Texans has resulted in a slight chink to the defense’s armour and the addition of former Pro Bowler Chase Young has turned out to be a disappointment thus far.
While it’s fair to claim that this defense is not perhaps on the same level as the one of previous years, the likes of Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw and Fred Warner are all still major players on this side of the ball.
But it’s the star-studded offense of McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk, and Samuel, along with Shanahan’s genius play concepts and designs that make the Niners a formidable outfit and favourites to hoist this year’s Lombardi.
It would be unfair to mention Mahomes in this segment and not refer to his counterpart in Brock Purdy, who has silenced his media critics with what is now two playoff comeback victories against daunting opposition.
Despite this, there are still many alluding to the final pick of 2022’s draft as a ‘system quarterback’, but surely a win this weekend against the best in the game will finely sway those opinions in a more favourable direction.
Much like Mahomes, Purdy has played a massive part in getting his team here and will probably have to play an even bigger role should the Niners want to erase their near thirty-year Lombardi drought this Sunday.
What the stats say
It won’t surprise you that both teams are similar when it comes to offensive and defensive productivity in both the regular and post-season stat sheet.
It is clear by looking at the data however that the Chiefs are the perfect example of a team that simply gets better when the business end of the season comes around.
KC’s offense were ranked 6th passing and a below average 19th rushing during the regular season, which equated them to being ranked the 9th best total offense in the league through the first 17 games.
They’ve now rushed for 382yds across three post-season games, which is number one amongst playoff teams and are averaging close 130yds per-game on the ground.
It’s obvious that despite Mahomes’ immaculate talent, Andy Reid considers the phrase ‘pounding the rock’ an important philosophy to go by, as this team’s trust in evasive back Isiah Pacheco is obviously something they lean on in colder conditions.
Expect to see the Chiefs rely on that one-two punch with Pacheco and Edwards-Helaire again, as the Niners have given up a total of 318yds rushing to both Detroit and Green Bay previously and it may be something KC can capitalise on.
The running game is also something San Francisco can take advantage of, as the Chiefs defense still gave up an average 113yds against Miami, Buffalo and Baltimore, and if there is one man you want to carry you, surely, it’s CMC.
Whilst these figures suggest it could be a run-heavy Super Bowl, expect the receiving stars to have a major impact as well.
There is an argument to be made that the NFC is the conference with the least talent at quarterback, therefore siding with the potential that the Chiefs’ number 4 rank pass defense has faced better opposition than San Frans’, who were ranked 14th.
This propounds the idea that KC’s defense has a higher chance at containing Purdy as opposed to the Niners’ chances at stopping Mahomes.
It’s also perhaps worth noting the Chiefs’ defense had no issues restraining the only team that finished above the 49ers in total offense all season in the Miami Dolphins, but of course, it’s all about who performs on the day.
Despite the team stats favouring the Chiefs however, player stats alone are influenced heavily by the 49ers.
As might be expected, tight end Travis Kelce dominates receiving statistics for the KC with 23 receptions for 262yds and 3 TDs this post-season, alongside rookie Rashee Rice, who is the only other Chiefs receiver marginally close to those numbers.
On the other side, you have Deebo (8 receptions vs. Detroit), Kittle (81yds & TD vs. GB), Aiyuk (100+yds & TD this post-season), and McCaffrey, who is a menace in both the pass and run game (180+rush yds & 4 TDs this post-season).
All of this without mentioning the likes of Elijah Mitchell, Juan Jennings and Kyle Juszczyk, it’s clear which offensive personnel you would take.
In conclusion, this game could come down to how well equipped the Chiefs defense is in thwarting the Niners’ offensive weapons.
We know it’ll be merely impossible to put a button on ALL the avengers, but relative success and running the rock with Pacheco might just be the secret success to concluding the winner here.
Predictions
If you were one of those that read my championship game previews and noticed I chose the Lions and Ravens to be contending this game, I wouldn’t blame you for hitting that X button at the top of your screen now.
But hear me out on this one…
It’s not easy picking the winner at this stage of the season, never mind in the showcase event of the year.
During the regular season, it’s more about picking the loser, but in the post-season, it’s very rare that any team loses; it’s more that the other team wins it.
Despite Detroit and Baltimore’s arguable hiccups on the offensive sides of the ball, the two teams that are playing in Vegas this weekend are the those that 100% deserve to be there.
To decide who I think will come out on top, I took the liberty of writing down the top 15 best pound-for-pound players (from both sides) and combining them to see which side was represented more throughout the list.
This was the list I came up with (in order):
- Patrick Mahomes (KC)
- Christian McCaffrey (SF)
- Travis Kelce (KC)
- Nick Bosa (SF)
- Trent Williams (SF)
- Deebo Samuel (SF)
- George Kittle (SF)
- Chris Jones (KC)
- Isiah Pacheco (KC)
- Fred Warner (SF)
- Brandon Aiyuk (SF)
- Rashee Rice (KC)
- Brock Purdy (SF)
- L’jarius Sneed (KC)
- Charvarius Ward (SF)
There were a couple of difficult omissions (Dre Greenlaw (SF), Justin Reid (KC) and Trent McDuffie (KC)) who just missed out, but in culmination the tally came to San Francisco 9 – Kansas City 6.
Therefore, that’s who I’m siding with to win Super Bowl 58.
I know, picking against Mahomes and Reid in a Super Bowl should be a crime at this rate, but I’m prepared to do it one more time before probably falling on my sword for the final time this season.
In the end, Super Bowls are often won by moments, and I feel that San Francisco have better players for the biggest moments.
It’s also very difficult to do the same thing twice, and despite the Niners lacklustre playoff performance to date, I believe they’ll step up to the plate to edge the Chiefs out in a high-scoring, fast-paced encounter.
Who do you think is bringing home the Lombardi trophy? Let us know…
Gaelic Gridiron Picks🍀:
Daibhóg
Winners: San Francisco
Final Score: 33 – 30
Super Bowl MVP: Christian McCaffrey
First Touchdown: Christian McCaffrey
Jimmy
Winners: Kansas City
Final Score: 27 – 21
Super Bowl MVP: Patrick Mahomes
First Touchdown: Travis Kelce
Twist
Winners: Kansas City
Final Score: 34 – 28
Super Bowl MVP: Travis Kelce
First Touchdown: Christian McCaffrey