Super Bowl LX Picks & Predictions: Seahawks vs Patriots Betting
Props and MVP Longshots
It’s finally here. The Super Bowl. The big one. The game that defines the NFL season every single year. This time around we have a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX, which took place eleven years ago in Glendale, Arizona. That game gave us the iconic Malcolm Butler interception with twenty seconds remaining in the game to seal the victory for New England. Seattle will be looking to avoid such an ending this time around, and will be hoping to cap off their first Super Bowl appearance since that infamous day with a hoisting of their second ever Lombardi. The Patriots on the other hand, will be aiming to relive the emotions of that February night in 2015 and in the process, win their first Super Bowl since the end of the Tom Brady era in Massachusetts. After giving you my picks every Sunday since Week 12, I thought it would only be right to cap off the season with some big picks for the biggest game of all. Let’s dive in.
Seahawks -6.5, Alternate Spread (53/50)
- The Seahawks are currently -4.5 point favourites to win Super Bowl LX, but I think that spread is a little bit conservative given the difference in playoff performance between the two sides thus far. The Patriots can of course only defeat who is in front of them, but they have had a much easier ride up to this point and despite Drake Maye having a -17.7 EPA as a passer during this playoff run (only one other quarterback has had a negative EPA as a passer in the playoffs since the Next Gen Stats era began in 2016) the team has still gotten the job done.
- Sam Darnold on the other hand is coming off what I believe to be the best performance of his career to date. Darnold threw for 346 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions on 25/36 passing against the Rams in the NFC Championship game. LA had caused Darnold trouble dating back to last season, and he had thrown six interceptions against them in two match-ups this season already. To see Sam put those demons behind him against one of the very best teams in the NFL, was all the reassurance myself and a lot of others needed to feel confident in his ability heading out onto the Levi’s Stadium turf this Sunday.
- With the displays of these two quarterbacks over the past few weeks at the forefront of my mind, I can’t see this game going any other way than Seattle’s and I think at least one touchdown is a nice margin of victory to lay our first pick on.
Jaxson Smith-Njigba, Anytime TD (10/11)
- JSN is a superstar wide receiver for so many reasons, too many to fit into in this piece frankly, but the fact that he led the league in yardage when lined up in the slot last season and followed that up by leading the league when lined up on the outside this season (becoming the first player to ever do this in the Next Gen Stats era) speaks volumes of his versatility. He is truly a one-of-one receiver and Christian Gonzalez or whoever else will have the torrid task of lining up against the reigning Offensive Player of the Year on Sunday, will be in for a very long night.
- Smith-Njigba has caught twelve touchdown passes across nineteen appearances this regular season and playoffs. The Patriots gave up 27 passing touchdowns in twenty games this season and are one of the worst teams in the league defending against throws of 20+ yards. I really like JSN to get into the endzone in the Super Bowl, after already doing so in both of his playoff appearances so far and don’t be surprised if it comes on a pass of twenty or more yards.
Kenneth Walker, Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (10/11)
- This season, the Patriots have been superb against the run and this has only been amplified when Milton Williams is on the field. New England have allowed 97 rushing yards per game across the season and if Kenneth Walker struggles to get going early as other backs have against the Patriots during this playoff run, Darnold may well look to get the ball into his star rusher’s hands in the passing game.
- With Zach Charbonnet out with a torn ACL, Walker will continue to get the lion’s share of touches out of the Seattle backfield and over the past few weeks this has not just been limited to running the ball for K9. Walker caught four passes for 49 yards against the Rams in the Conference Championship game, and in the two weeks before that (both against the 49ers) he caught three passes for 29 yards and four passes for 36 yards.
- If Darnold gets uncomfortable against the Patriots defensive front and handing the ball off to Walker is not working, expect a number of short passes to head in the direction of K9, with the expectation that he will use his elusive speed and change of direction to pick up first downs.
- If you fancy an accumulator/parlay instead of singular picks for the big game then the odds for the three main selections above combined total 5/1.
Super Bowl MVP Underdog, Jaxson Smith-Njigba (6/1)
- This is generally the award that goes to the quarterback of the winning team, but if we look outside of Sam Darnold and Drake Maye and pick an underdog, there’s only one way I can go here and that’s with JSN.
- I went into why I think Jaxson Smith-Njigba is going to grab a touchdown in the biggest game of his career already, but I think he has a real chance to set the world on fire with a performance for the ages. We have seen JSN put up ungodly numbers in both the NFL and college in the past and if he manages to go for 150+ yards and multiple touchdowns, I can’t see the award going any other way.
So that’s a wrap for another season, and what a season it was. This has been one of the most unpredictable years in the NFL that I can remember and we’re capping it off with the biggest outsider of a Super Bowl match-up to take place since 1989 (Seahawks vs Patriots was 4800/1 to be the match-up at the start of the season). We love the drama and we love the unpredictability, but behind it all we love to pick winners and show all of our friends how smart we are every Sunday that we can, so here’s to this Sunday being the smartest that we’ve looked all year!