NFL Divisional Round Picks
The Wildcard round certainly did not disappoint last weekend, with one score games and fourth quarter comebacks coming at us left right and centre. We went five for seven on our picks last week and hit our three-legged accumulator, so there were smiles all round over at Gaelic Gridiron on Tuesday morning. As always this article will provide you with the rationale behind the seven picks highlighted over on our social media channels, with the added bonus of a three-legged accumulator suggestion thrown in for the avid readers among us. Let’s get into the good stuff.
Spreads
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: Under 45.0 points (10/11)
- The under in the 49ers game got us a win last week and I see this week as an even better chance of a hit on this pick. They are facing off against the second best defense in the league for points allowed, with Seattle allowing only 17.2 points per game this season.
- These two teams have faced off twice this season already with the points totals in those match-ups hitting only 30 and 16, so I am surprised that the line for this one is so high.
- Three of the last four Seahawks games have gone under 37 points and I see this trend continuing with their defense well rested, coming off a bye-week.
Houston Texans +3.0 @ New England Patriots (Evens)
- On Monday night the Texans easily covered the spread against the Steelers, winning by 24 points, when the line was set at -3.0. This weekend, they face a much tougher challenge in the Patriots, but having watched New England beat a battered Chargers team by only 13 on Sunday night, I can see this one going the way of Houston.
- The Texans are currently on a ten game winning streak, which is the longest in the NFL. During this stretch they defeated four teams who had a win total of over .500, something the Patriots have simply not faced often this season (they are 2-2 vs teams over .500 this season, including the playoffs) and are therefore hard to judge as a true contender.
- The Texans boast the best defense in the league for points against, with 16.7 points per game allowed this season. Drake Maye has not faced a defense of this caliber all season and if the Patriots do come out on top I do not see it being by more than three points.
Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears: Over 48.5 points (10/11)
- This game has points written all over it. The Rams boast the highest scoring offense in the league, putting up 30.7 points per game this season, with the Bears not too far behind them in ninth at 26.2 points per game.
- The last time a Rams game went under 49 points was eight games ago on the 23rd of November.
- These two teams both put up over thirty points on Wildcard Weekend, with their game totals hitting 65 and 58. The weather is due to be very cold this Sunday in Chicago, so expect to see these two offenses rely on their ground game to do the majority of the dirty work. Luckily for us, the Bears average the third most rushing yards per game in the league with 141.6, with the Rams coming in at seventh with 126 ground yards per game.
Touchdown Scorers
Zach Charbonnet (10/11), 49ers @ Seahawks
- Charbonnet has been absolutely superb in his third season in the NFL, notching twelve total touchdowns in sixteen games.
- The Seahawks’ physical running back has really enjoyed facing off against the 49ers this season, picking up a touchdown on the ground in both match-ups.
- The 49ers linebacker room has been completely depleted this season, with Fred Warner and Nick Martin on Injured Reserve and Dee Winters and Luke Gifford questionable for Saturday night’s showdown in Seattle. These injuries will allow the Seahawks run game to get up and running early, as they did in Week 18 in San Francisco, where Charbonnet ran for 74 yards and Kenneth Walker notched 97.
Puka Nacua (20/23), Rams @ Bears
- Nacua has looked like the best receiver in the league for a large stretch of this season and has led the league in receiving yards per game with 107.4.
- Puka has a total of twelve touchdowns through seventeen games during the regular season and Wildcard Weekend, including five in his last four games.
- The Bears have given up 36 receiving touchdowns in eighteen games this season. Two per game is the third worst rate in the NFL, behind only the Jets and the Cowboys.
Player Stats
Bo Nix Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Broncos
- Last weekend we went for the opposing quarterback of the Bills to get over 24.5 rushing yards and it paid off, so let’s hit it again. The Bills still rank as the fifth worst rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 137.2 yards per game.
- Nix has gone for 25 or more yards on the ground five times this season and two of these have come in his last two games, going for 42 and 49 rushing yards in these games. Nix also hit the over on this line ten times last season, including rushing for 43 yards against the Bills in the playoffs.
- Buffalo has now allowed seven other quarterbacks to go for over 24.5 rushing yards in games against them this season, with most smashing this total out of the park. Lamar Jackson (70), Shedeur Sanders, Spencer Rattler and Justin Fields (49), Drake Maye (43), Baker Mayfield (39) and Trevor Lawrence last week (31).
Colston Loveland Over 56.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Rams @ Bears
- The Rams have found it tough to contain bigger bodied receivers this season and Tet McMillan proved this point last weekend going for 81 yards, with his 6’5” frame giving the Rams defensive backs a lot of problems.
- Loveland certainly has the size (6’6”, 109kg) along with the speed and hands needed to be a top tight end in the NFL. He has gone for 137, 91 and 94 yards in his last three games and has grabbed 57 yards or more through the air five times during his rookie season, with a huge uptick as the year moved into crunch time.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Divisional Round Weekend for an 8/1 combined price.
Leg 1: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks: Under 45.0 points (10/11)
Leg 2: Los Angeles Rams @ Chicago Bears: Over 48.5 points (10/11)
Leg 3: Zach Charbonnet (10/11), 49ers @ Seahawks
Here’s to another huge weekend of football and another bag full of successful picks. Good luck with all your bets and please gamble responsibly (18+).