Matchups of the Week and Some Names to Watch
Words: Jamie Carty
The NFL is firmly home from Europe now as another Germany game has come and gone. While we love seeing teams come across the pond, at least there’s two more teams to give Scott Hansen the chance to present an Octobox on Sunday evening.
With this article, I want to present the players we can expect to dominate their matchups, as well as some secondary names who have an opportunity to come to the fore in their upcoming games.
Matchups of the Week
Jared Goff
We all know Jared Goff is a good quarterback (since joining the Lions at least), but week 10 proved tough for him, with just a 50% completion rate and FIVE interceptions. Some may have some concern about him moving forward, but he gets the perfect bounce-back opportunity vs the Jaguars this week. Jacksonville have given up the 5th most receiving yards to wide receivers in the NFL this season and are getting torched by quarterbacks on a weekly basis.
Goff may only need to be a game-manager this week with the Lions’ likely lead against a depleted Jags side with Mac Jones at the helm, but as we’ve already seen this season, the Lions like to run up the score with their endless book of trick plays.
MVP-calibre Goff is back.
Joe Mixon
This week presents a match made in heaven for Mixon. With Nico Collins out, Mixon has seen a monstrous workload with results to match. In fact, he has only fallen below 24 carries in one healthy game all season, and that was on his return from injury.
This week, the Texans get a Dallas team in turmoil. The Cowboys have been the 6th most advantageous matchup for running backs on the year, and are now without Dak Prescott. This means that a positive game-script is likely for Houston, and that means even more running back carries.
With star wide receiver Nico Collins returning from injury, the Texans should be firing on all cylinders, and the offence will run through Joe Mixon. Very successfully.
Devon Achane
None of us could have expected such a steep fall from grace for this Dolphins offence after their consistent electric performances last season, but here we are. That’s why we love the sport.
Despite the immense talent they have at the position, Dolphins wide receivers have only accounted for 49% of the team’s target share on the season, the 3rd lowest in the league, only behind the Chiefs who haven’t had much talent at wide receiver, and New Orleans who have to start players you’ve never heard of each week.
Why has this happened? Naturally some of it has to do with Tua’s absence, but it’s also due to the emergence of Jonnu Smith and Devon Achane. With Tua under centre, Achane has averaged 7 targets a game and 6.6 receptions, making him a focal point in the team regardless of whether they’re winning or losing.
This week, the Dolphins face the Raiders who are, frankly, a lost cause this season. Anything can happen, but I think we can expect the Dolphins to have the lead for most of this game, and Achane should get a lot of ball as a result.
Something specific to watch in this matchup is the Dolphins’ utilisation of outside zone run concepts. 31.8% of Achane’s runs this season have been within this scheme (the 10th-highest rate in football), and the Raiders happen to be allowing a 45.7% success rate on this specific type of run.
Don’t be surprised if you see Achane running down the sideline for a big one this weekend.
George Pickens
With the emergence of Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh, so too has come the fruits of Pickens’ labour. Since Wilson has become the starter, Pickens has boasted receiving lines of 111, 74 and 91 with 2 touchdowns. We shouldn’t expect the fun to stop there with a big week 11 primed for both players.
This week the Steelers get the Ravens, which is a perfect place for the air-raid to continue. Baltimore are a complete pass-funnel, giving up the most receiving yards in the league to wide receivers. Quarterbacks are throwing for 77 more yards than the league average against the Ravens, and have particularly found success throwing to the perimeter against the Ravens. This is prime Pickens territory.
The Steelers added Mike Williams to the offense right before the trade deadline, and the addition of another perimeter receiver who likes to catch it deep has made the team’s identity clear. Ground and pound until the opposition stacks the box, and then launch the famous Russell Wilson moonball as soon as they’re committed to stopping Najee.
The addition of Williams won’t hinder Pickens’ production. It just adds another layer to the passing game that will soften coverage on him.
George Kittle
It often feels like a feast or a famine for George Kittle, at least in the receiving game, but Kittle should thrive this week against the Seahawks, who he scored 2 touchdowns against just five weeks ago.
Kittle has had a spike in production over the last 3 weeks, which happens to coincide with Brandon Aiyuk’s season-ending injury. In those 3 games, Kittle has had 15 catches on 18 targets for 277 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns.
The Seahawks are ranked 24th in defence against the tight end position, and despite a full house in San Francisco with the return of McCaffrey and the emergence of Pearsall, Kittle still may be the most reliable target in the red-zone. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him spike it in the endzone this Sunday.
Some Deeper Names to Watch
Audric Estime
Last week was a significant one for Estime, as he led the backfield with an 82% running back rush share on the week. The highest of any Broncos running back this season. It seems clear that the full transition to the young bruiser has come. While he didn’t produce much on the day, we have to remember that the Chiefs have the single best run defence in the league.
Inversely, the Broncos have the best O-Line vs D-Line matchup of the week, leading to a more favourable environment for Estime. Lets see what the rookie can do!
Kayshon Boutte
Boutte ran a route on 100% of the Patriots’ dropbacks last week and saw a 26% target share for a career-high 4 catches against a tough Chicago defence. While Demario Douglas has become a favourite for Drake Maye, Boutte has a much more favourable matchup on the outside, where the Rams are particularly vulnerable.
If Boutte can see last week’s numbers again here, a career day is very likely.
Davis Allen
After being a non-factor this season thus far, things changed for Allen in week 10. Allen’s route participation jumped from 45% in week 9 to 88% and a 14% target share last week, both season highs. A transition has been made from Colby Parkinson to Davis Allen as the Rams’ top pass-catching tight end.
New England are a middling opponent against tight ends, so it’s not a particularly advantageous matchup for Allen, but they’re not a bad one. Let’s see if this positive trajectory continues and leads to some strong output from Allen.