7 Wild Card Weekend Picks
Wow, what a regular season that was. It’s hard to believe that we have just watched eighteen weeks of football go by in what feels like the blink of an eye, but thankfully we’ve still got the best part of the season lined up and ready to deliver. As always this article will provide you with the rationale behind the seven picks highlighted over on our social media channels, with the added bonus of a three-legged accumulator suggestion thrown in for you glorious readers. Enough yapping, let’s dive head first into some playoff football.
Spreads
San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles: Under 44.5 points (10/11)
- Seven of the last nine games for the Eagles have gone under this points total, with only two of their home games this season going over 45.
- The 49ers are a team that have a high powered offense, but when they face top defenses like this Philly team boasts, they have been limited to less than 17 points (3 and 17 against Seattle & 15 against Houston).
- Last week the Seahawks held Brock Purdy’s offense to just three points and set a blueprint which Philadelphia has the personnel to mimic quite closely. The Eagles offense has stuttered their way through this season and this game has a low points total written all over it for me.
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots: Over 46.0 points (10/11)
- Eight of the last nine Patriots games have gone for at least 46 points with seven of these going over.
- New England boasts the second highest scoring offense in the league with 28.8 points per game scored.
- The Chargers have put up an average of 21.6 points per game this season, but being led by a rested Justin Herbert they should put points up on a Patriots team that have the third worst red zone defense in the league. New England is allowing touchdowns on 67.5% of opponents’ visits inside their twenty yard line. The next worst amongst playoff teams are Green Bay who rank 21st in the league with 59.62%.
Houston Texans -3.0 @ Pittsburgh Steelers (20/21)
- The Texans come into this game on a nine game winning streak. During that nine game stretch, Houston has only won one game by less than three points.
- These two teams match-up pretty evenly in offense across the season with Houston scoring 23.8 points per game and the Steelers notching 23.4, but Houston boasts the second best defense in the league for points allowed at 17.4 per game.
- Pittsburgh have displayed the frailties of their secondary too many times this season (including last weekend with multiple blown coverages on Baltimore’s number one option, Zay Flowers) to be considered in this match-up and CJ Stroud should continue to attack down the field to Nico Collins, Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel.
Touchdown Scorers
Christian Watson (7/4), Packers @ Bears
- Watson had a slow start this season with injuries slowing him down, but he has really kicked on in his last seven games, grabbing six touchdown passes during that run.
- He has tied Tucker Kraft for the most receiving yards per game for Green Bay with 61.1 and since Kraft’s injury, Watson has been Jordan Love’s go-to guy.
- The Bears have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the league amongst playoff teams this season. With 32 scoring grabs given up, they rank fifth worst amongst all teams. Watson took advantage of this during the Packers and Bears’ Week 14 match-up, grabbing two touchdown catches.
Trevor Lawrence (7/4), Bills @ Jaguars
- Lawrence has really added to his rushing game this season under Liam Coen, with nine scores on the ground for the quarterback, blowing his previous season high of five out of the water.
- Lawrence has scored four rushing touchdowns in his last four games and leads Jacksonville in rushing scores this season.
- The Bills have allowed the joint-most rushing touchdowns of any team in the NFL this season with 24, matching the Cowboys with this unwanted statistic.
Player Stats
Trevor Lawrence Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Jaguars
- Sticking with Trevor Lawrence’s rushing ability here, he is facing off against a Bills team who have allowed the most rushing yards per game of any team in the playoffs and the fifth worst across the entire league, with 136.2 yards allowed per game.
- Lawrence has gone for 25 or more yards on the ground six times this season and four of these have come in his last seven games.
- Buffalo has allowed six other quarterbacks to go for over 25 rushing yards in games against them this season, with each one smashing this total out of the park. Lamar Jackson (70), Shedeur Sanders, Spencer Rattler and Justin Fields (49), Drake Maye (43) and Baker Mayfield (39).
Jayden Higgins Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Texans @ Steelers
- We are returning back to the leaky secondary of the Steelers with this pick. Pittsburgh has the worst passing defense amongst all playoff teams, allowing 261 yards per game through the air, which ranks third worst in the NFL.
- Higgins has gone for over 29 yards receiving in eleven games across his rookie season.
- The young wideout should get plenty of opportunities to gain favourable match-ups in this game with the Steelers secondary most likely to focus on attempting to nullify Nico Collins who has been on fire this season, leading the Texans with 1,117 receiving yards across fifteen games.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Wildcard Weekend for a 6/1 combined price.
Leg 1: Trevor Lawrence Over 24.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Jaguars
Leg 2: San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles: Under 44.5 points (10/11)
Leg 3: Jayden Higgins Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Texans @ Steelers
Here’s to this weekend doing exactly what it says on the tin and providing us with some ‘Wild’-card match-ups. Good luck with all your bets and please gamble responsibly (18+).