NFL Picks for Week 15
Seven Sunday Picks
This Sunday is one of the best slates of games that I can remember over the past few seasons. We’ve got storylines and huge match-ups everywhere we look. Below you’ll find the rationale behind the five picks highlighted in our social media ‘Five Sunday Locks’ segment and an additional two player stat picks to sink your teeth into. There’s a three-legged accumulator suggestion to wrap the Sunday picks too, so let’s get into the good stuff.
Spreads
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams: Under 55.0 points (10/11)
- This is the highest points total line this Sunday, with only one other above fifty. This is down to the fact that the two offenses on show are very high-powered, but even so this line is incredibly high for the level of defense that will be played.
- The Rams boast the third best defense in the league for average points allowed, only giving up 17.5 per game across the thirteen they have played this season.
- The sides played twice in 2024 (once in the playoffs and once in the regular season) and the games resulted in 46 and 47 points, well shy of going over 55.
- Only four of the Rams thirteen games have gone over 55 points this season, with just six of the Lions thirteen doing the same.
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants: Over 46.5 points (10/11)
- This match-up sees two of the worst defenses in the league facing off. The Giants have allowed 28.2 points per game this season and the Commanders have allowed 27.2.
- The last three Giants games went over the 46.5 total, with seven of their last eight having at least hit the 47 point mark.
- Washington laid an egg on offense last week, losing 31-0 to the Vikings, but the week prior they put up 26 points on the Broncos who are one of the best defenses in the league.
Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 41.5 points (10/11)
- The Colts are a question mark on offense with 44 year-old Philip Rivers starting at quarterback, but the Seahawks are more than capable of reaching this points total on their own – they have put up 44, 44, 38, 37 and 35 points in games this season.
- Seattle are the second highest scoring offense in the league, averaging 29.8 points per game and even with Riley Leonard at quarterback last weekend for three quarters, the Colts put up nineteen points on a great Jaguars defense.
- Nine of the thirteen Seahawks games this season have gone over the 41.5 point mark, with eleven of the Colts thirteen reaching the same total.
Touchdown Scorers
Chalk Pick: Saquon Barkley (20/23), Raiders @ Eagles
- The Raiders have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season, with eighteen scores coming against them on the ground.
- Barkley has had a quiet season so far by his standards, grabbing seven total touchdowns in thirteen games, but last week he broke off his second longest rush of the season which resulted in a 52-yard touchdown.
- This is a must win for the Eagles at home, having lost their last three games. The game plan against an awful Raiders defense will have to be a return to what won the Super Bowl for Philadelphia last season – running the ball over and over again to open up play action opportunities for Jalen Hurts. Expect Saquon to back up last week’s performance with another big one today.
Outsider: Isaiah Likely (9/4), Ravens @ Bengals
- Isaiah Likely will likely (apologies) be the end zone target for Lamar Jackson on Sunday, with the Bengals having given up a mind-blowing fifteen touchdowns to tight ends this season. Cincinnati have given up a total of 29 passing touchdowns this season, which is the most in the league.
- Last weekend Likely grabbed his first touchdown catch of the season and should have had another, with his second being ruled out controversially in a 27-22 loss to the Steelers.
- Likely had a huge game against the Bengals two weeks ago, going for a season-high 95 yards on five catches. Expect Jackson to look to the six foot four tight end all evening.
Player Stats
Darius Slayton Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Commanders @ Giants
- Slayton has gone over this receiving total in his last three games with Jaxson Dart starting at quarterback for the Giants, hitting 89, 62 and 41 in those three appearances.
- The Commanders allow the third most receiving yards per game in the league, with 246.9 yards being the average they give up through the air.
- The Giants are coming off a bye week and with Jaxson Dart back to full health, New York will be aiming to take advantage of a weak Washington passing defense, with Dart continuing to strengthen the on-field relationship with his receivers.
TreVeyon Handerson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Patriots
- Henderson has blown this total out of the water in his past six appearances, going for 67, 66, 62, 147, 55 and 75 yards on the ground. Henderson’s rushing attempts across these six games have been at an average of just over fourteen, so he is clearly capable of getting a big return from limited touches.
- The Bills have allowed the fifth most rushing yards per game this season, with teams going for an average of 135.2 against them, on an average of 5.1 yards per carry.
- The fact that this line is so low is surprising, given Henderson’s recent form and the lack of production from backfield partner Rhamondre Stevenson across the season. This one is my bet of the weekend for sure.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Sunday for a 6/1 combined price.
Leg 1: Indianapolis Colts @ Seattle Seahawks: Over 41.5 points (10/11)
Leg 2: Darius Slayton Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Commanders @ Giants
Leg 3: TreVeyon Handerson Over 44.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Patriots
Total Odds: 6/1
Best of luck with your bets this weekend and enjoy what may be the best Sunday of football this regular season.