NFL Week 13 Picks
Seven Sunday Picks
We started off hot last Sunday, going 5/7 on our first Seven Sunday Picks and cashing our 6/1 accumulator. We’re back again for more this week and below you’ll find the rationale behind the five picks highlighted in our social media ‘Five Sunday Locks’ segment. Just like last week, there’s an additional two picks for good measure and you might even find a cheeky accumulator (parlay for all you US readers out there) suggestion. Here we go again, onto the good stuff.
Spreads
Arizona Cardinals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Over 44.5 points (10/11)
- In the six games where Jacoby Brissett has been the starter for the Cardinals, they have put up an average of 24.2 points per game. They are facing off against a side in Tampa Bay that has given up 25.8 points per game. The Bucs have one of the worst passing game defenses in the league, giving up 243.5 yards per game and letting it rip down the field is Brissett’s forte.
- The Arizona defense has not exactly been lights out this season either. They have allowed a very similar number of points per game to the Bucs, with 25.7 being their average conceded through eleven games. Baker Mayfield, although likely to play on Sunday, was banged up last week against the Rams; so he will certainly be happy to see Bucky Irving’s return to get the Tampa run game going.
- Five of Brissett’s six starts for the Cardinals saw the game go over the 44.5 point mark and two of the last three Bucs games have comfortably hit the same mark.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Over 41.5 points (10/11)
- The Jaguars are a very interesting team to watch. They have a 7-4 record but really do not have the traits of a playoff team; but regardless of any of that, they will put up a lot of points on this Titans team. Tennessee have allowed the fourth most points per game in the NFL this season with 27.5.
- Six of the last eight Jags games have gone over the 41.5 point mark and the Titans have had four of their last five hit the same. The Titans have been abysmal this year, but the only positive is that their offensive game is improving slightly with first overall pick Cam Ward at the helm, and the side put up 24 points on one of the top three defenses in the league in the Seahawks last Sunday.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts: Under 44.0 points (10/11)
- This game is likely to be a battle of defenses, which is exactly what the Texans will want it to be. This Houston defense is the best in the league in my opinion and Daniel Jones sitting in the pocket with a fractured fibula, is going to be a sight that star pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter will be licking their lips at. It will also be difficult for Indy to rely on their main offensive piece Jonathan Taylor, as the Texans allow the fifth least rushing yards per game with 92.2.
- Both of these teams have a very strong defense, with Houston allowing the second least points per game at 16.5 and the Colts allowing an impressive 20.8 points per game themselves.
- Only three of the Texans eleven games this season have gone for over 44 points and with Indy having been held to just twenty points in two of their last three games, there is no reason to assume this game would go over this points total. This argument is only amplified by C.J. Stroud’s return from a three game absence – he will likely be rusty in his first game back as Houston continues to rely upon their strong defense.
Touchdown Scorers
Chalk Pick: Travis Etienne Jr. (10/11), Jaguars @ Titans
- The Titans have allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in the league this season with sixteen in eleven games.
- The Jaguars rely heavily on the run game for their scoring, with 50% of their offensive touchdowns coming on the ground this season.
- Travis Etienne Jr. has been the go-to running back for Jacksonville and he has four total touchdowns across his last three games.
Outsider: Ashton Jeanty (29/20), Raiders @ Chargers
- Ashton Jeanty has eight total touchdowns after eleven games across his rookie season, with the powerful running back getting into the endzone in three of his last four games.
- The Chargers have allowed the fourth most rushing touchdowns in the league with fourteen scores on the ground against them through eleven games..
- The introduction of new offensive coordinator Greg Olson in Las Vegas will likely bring a new look to a fairly stale Raiders offense, and who better for the team to give more of the ball to than their sixth overall pick. Olson even went as far as to say that the Raiders “gotta find more ways to get him the ball”, in reference to Jeanty.
Player Stats
Josh Allen Over 233.5 Passing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Steelers
- This number is way too low in my opinion and this is my bet of the week without a doubt. The Steelers have allowed 258.7 passing yards per game this season, which is the worst in the NFL.
- Josh Allen has thrown for over 250 yards in his last four games straight, settling into a groove through the air as this season has progressed.
- Buffalo are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to Houston on Thursday Night Football last week, and with the team coming off an extended rest there is no reason to think that Allen and company will not come out firing from the off in Pittsburgh.
Shedeur Sanders Over 156.5 Passing Yards (10/11), 49ers @ Browns
- The expectations for Shedeur Sanders are very low, I get it, but this is far too low a figure. Last weekend, in his first start of the season Shedeur threw for 209 yards. There is a huge difference in the level of defense that Sanders faced in college, when compared to the talent level in the NFL; but Sanders was the type of quarterback that loved to rip the ball downfield on a consistent basis in college and we saw that already in the pros with his 52-yard bomb to Isaiah Bond last Sunday.
- The 49ers have been riddled with injuries on both sides of the ball, and due to this they have given up 243.5 yards per game through the air. This total is twenty five yards higher than the average given up by the defense that Sanders faced last week in Las Vegas. We put our faith in him last Sunday and he delivered with the win, let’s ride the hot hand in Cleveland.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Sunday for a tasty 6/1 combined price. Let’s go back to back on these 6/1 three-leggers.
Leg 1: Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans: Over 41.5 points (10/11)
Leg 2: Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts: Under 44.0 points (10/11)
Leg 3: Josh Allen Over 233.5 Passing Yards (10/11), Bills @ Steelers
Total Odds: 6/1
Best of luck with your bets this weekend and enjoy the rest of this packed week of football, as every team in the league takes the field for Week 13.