7 Picks for Week 12 of the NFL
This is the first of a weekly segment that will run throughout football season, in which I will give you my seven best picks for the NFL Sunday ahead. Below you’ll find the rationale behind the five picks highlighted in our social media ‘Five Sunday Locks’ segment and an additional two for good measure, you might even find a cheeky accumulator (parlay for all you US readers out there) suggestion. So, let’s get into the good stuff.
Spreads
New York Giants @ Detroit Lions: Over 50.0 points (10/11)
- The Lions have the fourth highest scoring offense in the league (29.2 ppg), meanwhile the Giants are allowing the third most points per game at 27.3. A field day should be expected for Detroit at home, as they look to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Eagles.
- Jameis Winston is back in at quarterback for the Giants this week, so he will be looking to use his deep ball to keep the Giants alive in this game for as long as possible. Expect fireworks in Detroit on Sunday, with both teams notching multiple touchdowns.
- The last six Giants games have seen four go for over fifty total points, with an average of 53.8 points scored across the six outings. New York loves a high scoring game, but they do not often come out on top – the Lions will be licking their lips at this prospect.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans: Over 40.0 points (10/11)
- The Seahawks have the third highest scoring offense in the league (29.4 ppg), while the Titans are joint third in most points allowed per game at the same mark as the Giants – 27.3. Seattle and quarterback Sam Darnold will be looking to put up a huge offensive day, after Darnold threw four interceptions last weekend in a two point loss to the Rams.
- This season has seen the Seahawks put up 44, 44, 38, 35, and 31 points in games. I expect them to go for over forty points on their own against this woeful Tennessee defense, but all we really need here is Cam Ward to guide the Titans to one decent drive all game to push this beyond doubt.
Cleveland Browns +4.0 @ Las Vegas Raiders (10/11)
- It’s Shedeur Sanders season baby! On a serious note, Shedeur was awful last week when he came in against the Ravens, but he had not taken snaps with the starting offense since training camp so it would be unfair to judge the rookie on last week’s performance. I expect a much better showing on Sunday.
- The Raiders defense has allowed 25.6 points per game and there is no better place for Sanders to go on the road for his first start, as he attempts to guide the Browns to a win. Taking the +4.0 spread gives us a nice buffer and I think the Browns defense will make life hell for Geno Smith behind that awful Las Vegas offensive line. Cleveland have also limited teams to the least passing yards per game (167), good luck out there Geno.
Touchdown Scorers
Chalk Pick: David Montgomery (4/5), Giants @ Lions
- The Giants have allowed the second most rushing touchdowns in the league with fifteen, while the Lions have scored thirteen in total on the ground.
- New York’s rushing defense is the second worst in the league, allowing 149.9 ground yards per game. The Lions will make use of both Jahmyr Gibbs and Montgomery in this game, with both guaranteed to feast on a miserable Giants run defense.
- Montgomery hasn’t scored a touchdown in two weeks, but the Lions always give him his opportunities in short yardage situations near the goal line and this Sunday I am very confident that he will add to his five scores on the season.
Outsider: Stefon Diggs (27/20), Patriots @ Bengals
- The Bengals have allowed the most passing touchdowns of any defense in the league this season with 25 allowed in just ten games. Drake Maye has thrown twenty touchdowns this season and he will certainly be adding a few more on Sunday.
- Diggs started the season slowly, gaining a rhythm with Maye before going off for 100+ yards in weeks four and five. It took until week eight for him to notch his first touchdown catch, but he followed that up in weeks nine and ten. Last week he did not convert in the endzone, but he went for 100+ yards for the third time this season. Diggs is on a heater and this Sunday is the perfect setting for him to grab his team another six points.
Player Stats
Drake Maye Over 249.5 Passing Yards (10/11), Patriots @ Bengals
- As mentioned above, the Cincinnati defense is awful against the pass and has allowed the second most air yards per game with 257.3. Maye has put up 257.8 passing yards per game for the Patriots this season, so this line is a lot lower than I expected it to be.
- Maye has thrown for over 250 yards in his last four games and in six of his last seven outings, and the Bengals are not exactly the type of defense that looks like putting a stop to this streak.
Jacoby Brissett Over 247.5 Passing Yards (10/11), Jaguars @ Cardinals
- Jacoby Brissett loves throwing the ball. Last week he threw an NFL record 47 completed passes in the Cardinals 22 point loss to the 49ers, putting up 452 yards in the process. In Brissett’s five starts for Arizona this season, he has not thrown for under 258 yards on any occasion.
- The Jaguars are allowing opponents 236.9 passing yards per game, which is the seventh worst in the league. This is even considering that last week, the Chargers with a depleted offensive line could only muster 118 passing yards against Jacksonville. If that game was cut out, the Jaguars total passing yards allowed per game would be an even more harrowing statistic.
- Again, I’m quite surprised that this line is so low considering Brissett’s recent performances and the Cardinals one dimensional offensive plan.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Sunday for a tasty 6/1 combined price.
Leg 1: New York Giants @ Detroit Lions: Over 50.0 points (10/11)
Leg 2: Drake Maye Over 249.5 Passing Yards (10/11)
Leg 3: Jacoby Brissett Over 247.5 Passing Yards (10/11)
Total Odds: 6/1
Best of luck with your bets this weekend and I hope this Sunday is another intriguing one as we inch ever closer to January and the playoffs.