The Good, The Bad & The Ugly – Week 12 Player Matchups
By Jamie Carty
The bye-pocolypse may be upon us, but we keep moving!
Last week’s highlighted matchups returned some strong results. Players highlighted as “The Good”, most notably saw Jared Goff give us a career game, completing 24/29 passes for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns. He also had 4 carries for………… 21 yards!
Joe Mixon was the top running back on the week with 109 yards rushing and 44 receiving, as well as a hat-trick of touchdowns. We’ll take those kinds of results!
As was the case last week, this article will aim to highlight some good players in an opportunity to thrive, as well as some names that don’t often come to the top of the mind, but may grab your attention this week. We’re also adding some bad to the list, highlighting some well-known players who we can expect to underperform compared to their usual standards.
The Good
Kyler Murray
Kyler has been up and down all season. Some weeks he looks world-class, and some weeks he looks like Bryce Young. This week I expect the former.
This offence has run through James Conner this season. He has been the barometer for success on a week-to-week basis. Over the Summer, I think we all would have assumed that the path to success in this offence was through Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride.
So far, Harrison has had flashes of brilliance and long stints amidst the tumbleweeds. McBride has looked fantastic on the field, but is grab himself a receiving touchdown. Post-bye, this receiving game should be re-invigorated and we should see a Kyler boom week.
Seattle are a bottom-half defence at limiting quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, and this game could end up being a shootout.
Kenneth Walker
On the other side of Kyler’s matchup is Kenneth Walker.
Depending on how closely you’ve watched the Seahawks this season, Walker’s excellence may have slipped under your radar because of his injuries. If that is the case, I’m here to assure you that this guy is a stud.
Something that has separated Kenneth Walker this year and the Kenneth Walker of old is the receiving game. Up until this season, he could have been seen as a budget Derrick Henry, bruising the opposition with power runs until he breaks off a big one to the house. He was essentially a run-only running back, but this year he’s got it all.
In a huge contrast to years previous, Walker is 5th in running back targets per game this year, making him game-script-proof. Whether the Seahawks are behind or ahead this week, he’ll be heavily involved. In a potential shoot-out like this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 100+ scrimmage yards and a multi-touchdown game.
Brian Robinson
Robinson is having a fantastic sophomore season, with 7 touchdowns to his name already, despite two missed games. The three-headed monster in the Commanders’ rushing game has proven very successful, with Robinson being the ground-and-pound back, Ekeler the receiving back, and Daniels keeping defences guessing.
While this has possibly limited Robinson’s ceiling somewhat, this return from injury could see new levels of usage for him. During the first 8 games of the year, Jayden Daniels was averaging 53 rushing yards per game, and in his last 3 weeks, that number has dropped to 19. Is this as a result of his rib injury or preservation for a prospective playoff run?
Either way, this offers more opportunity for Robinson to get the ball in his hands, and what better time to get that chance than against the Cowboys?
Dallas are the 5th most advantageous matchup in the league for running backs, and have given up 13 touchdowns to running backs in 10 games, 12 of which were on the ground. I think it’s a safe bet to expect Robinson to run one in this week, and to manage the clock on the way to a Commanders victory.
AJ Brown
The Eagles have the lowest pass rate in the league this season, so it’s been the Saquon show rather than AJ Brown’s team. Even when things seem quiet, a huge AJ Brown week is always around the corner, and I think this could be the week we see that.
The Rams have been susceptible to wide receivers all season, and particularly perimeter receivers. Just three weeks ago we saw Jaxon Smith-Njigba post career-high numbers of 180 receiving yards and 2 TDs against them, and even last week we saw Kendrick Bourne have a day with 70 yards and 1 TD.
We’re going to be reminded this week that Brown is one of the best in the business. I’m looking forward to seeing him show out.
Ladd McConkey
The Chargers transition to a pass-heavy offence since their bye week has seen conversations sparked about Justin Herbert’s elite talent. Jim Harbaugh has injected some magic into a team that were supposed to be rebuilding, and has brought huge optimism to LA.
Leading the charge of this unexpectedly proficient receiving corps is Ladd McConkey, who is getting more responsibility every week and proving why he deserved it every time.
This week Ladeedee gets the Ravens, the most advantageous matchup in the league for wide receivers. They were better in week 11, but no team has been worse over the season. McConkey just had his 2nd game in his last 4 with over 100 receiving yards, and he could easily make it 3 out of 5 on Monday night.
Sam LaPorta
I could easily say George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers are going to have a great game here, but you all know that already. Instead, let’s take a look at Sam LaPorta, who has gone from Slam LaDunka to Sam LaPorta-Potty between his first two seasons.
A lot has been left to be desired from the young tight end this season. He’s been a non-factor most of the year. This week, however, I expect some hope to be injected back into Lions fans in his ability. While this is a lost year for him, last year was not a flash in the pan. With so many weapons on the best offence in the league he’s been left to play the role of Detroit’s cardio-king, running routes with no results.
I think we see a display akin to those in 2023 this week from LaPorta. The Colts are the 3rd best matchup in the league for Tight Ends, and have been letting them in the endzone pretty consistently, regardless of talent.
Here’s the prestigious group of Tight Ends who have scored against the Colts this season:
- Pat Freiermuth
- Cole Kmet
- Brenton Strange
- Josh Oliver
- Jonnu Smith
- Kenny Yeboah (who?)
LaPorta had his best outing of the season in his last outing, and I expect that momentum to continue this week with his 4th trip to the endzone this year.
The Bad
Anthony Richardson
Last week Richardson returned to the starting lineup after an uninspiring Flacco takeover, and he did so in style with an impressive 272 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown and 2 rushing touchdowns. Amidst some excitement about what he can become after that performance, I’m confident that in the game ahead, the answer is “not much”.
On the surface it seems that the Jets are a formidable opponent for a quarterback. This was the case early in the season, but that reality has dissipated since week 5. Since then, all but one quarterback (CJ Stroud) has performed better than their season-long average against them. Richardson may have had an easier time last week than many would expect.
On the contrary, a defence that is actually formidable is the Lions, who are top 5 at limiting quarterbacks.
Richardson was dropped due to a lack of commitment to the team, and a league-low completion rate. He’s been very inefficient this season, and that didn’t go away in week 11. It was just masked by some good plays and a win.
This week, that inefficiency will be punished more by Detroit. The Colts will be playing from behind, and Richardson will have to make some tough throws. I think he comes crashing back down to earth in week 12.
Chuba Hubbard
Chuba Hubbard has been an unexpected bright spark for the Panthers this season. While the world has been waiting for Jonathan Brooks, Hubbard has been putting up numbers we’d be thrilled to see from Brooks.
While it’s been a great season for him to date, and he’s even gotten a shiny new contract for himself, week 12 should prove difficult for him. Kansas City are the single toughest matchup in the NFL for running backs this season, allowing only 3 running backs all year to exceed 35 rushing yards. Those back were:
- Derrick Henry (week 1): 13 carries, 46 yards
- Jordan Mason (week 7): 14 carries, 58 yards
- Audric Estime (week 10): 14 carries, 53 yards
Backs such as Bijan Robinson, Alvin Kamara, JK Dobbins and more have all been held below that 35 yard mark, so with a Panthers team likely to be heavily trailing, I don’t anticipate a huge game from Hubbard.
D’Andre Swift
Swift had a strong outing in week 11, but despite that, it seems as though the new offensive co-ordinator wants a more split backfield.
In his 3 games prior to week 11, Swift boasted running back rush shares of 90%, 84% and 94%. In week 11, with their new coaching change, that suddenly dropped to 58%. Swift has also been less involved in the passing game of late, failing to reach a double-digit target share in 3 of his last 4 games.
These downward trends are cause for concern, but then you add matchup to the equation. Minnesota are limiting opposing running backs to 34 rushing yards less than their season-long averages. Roschon Johnson has also established himself as the team’s goal-line back.
To put the cherry on top of a pessimistic outlook, Swift is also banged up. He missed practice on Wednesday, and may not be 100% coming into week 12.
Cooper Kupp
Kupp had a fantastic week 11, and has been thriving when healthy this season, but week 12 will prove tough for him.
Philadelphia started the season off as a moderately beatable defence, but with the growth of their rookie DBs has come an intimidating proposition for opposing quarterbacks. Philly are now the 2nd toughest matchup against quarterbacks in the league, and the no. 1 toughest matchup for wide receivers.
The emergence of Quinyon Mitchell, and (more importantly for Kupp) Cooper DeJean have made this a terrifying fixture for any wide receiver. For the fantasy football players among you, since week 4, the Eagles have allowed one wide receiver enter the top 40 in weekly scoring. That one receiver was Ja’maar Chase, who seems untouchable.
Kupp could be about to join the prestigious list of CeeDee Lamb, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, and Terry McLaurin, who have all been nullified by this stout Eagles D.
Tank Dell
It’s been a mixed bag of a season for Dell this year. While it got off to an ice-cold start, he has reclaimed the year somewhat with some strong performances in Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs’ absences. While he has been on an upward trajectory, Dell’s outlook isn’t a bright one in week 12.
The Tennessee Titans have been strong at defending wide receivers this season. 2nd most effective in the league, in fact. That, paired with their anaemic offence, leads to games controlled by opposing running backs. We’ll likely see the Texans go ahead early and lean on Joe Mixon here, leading to uninspiring numbers from the Texans’ WR2.
Mark Andrews
In week 10, Andrews played without Isaiah Likely and suddenly seemed his old self again. He ran a route on 94% of the Ravens’ dropbacks which was a season-high by far, and it was the only game of the season that he saw a 20% target share. The big question in week 11: Will this continue?
Unfortunately the answer was no, and with the return of Likely, he dropped straight back down to a 58% route participation and a 9.7% target share, his lowest since week 4. It’s frustrating seeing this usage when we know how good Andrews can be, but the Ravens are finding continued success and don’t seem set to change their ways.
To add to the low likelihood of a strong outing of Andrews, he gets the Chargers this week, who are limiting the Tight End position at the 2nd most effective rate in the league, behind only New Orleans.
The Ugly (but less ugly than usual)
Tommy Devito
The call for potential success in this tier of players is naturally all relative. Especially during a week with so many byes.
I don’t expect DeVito to be the greatest quarterback of all time this week, but I would like to show a vote of confidence in his ability to manage the offence this week, as a result of the opposition he faces.
DeVito has struggled in previous starts with taking sacks and generating any sort of fluidity in the offence, but he should be able to get the job done this week against the Bucs. Tampa Bay are the 2nd most favourable matchup for quarterbacks. They’ve allowed nearly 40 more yards to be thrown on them per game than their opponent’s season-long averages.
Justice Hill
Hill saw a season-high 64% route participation in week 11. Something we haven’t seen too much this season is the Ravens in a tight game, and what we learned about their approach to that tight game, was that their running backs split snaps. Henry played a lot less than usual, and Hill played a lot more.
In week 12 the Ravens get a Chargers team who are fresh off the back of a convincing victory against the Bengals. Things are setting up to be close and high-scoring, so we could see a strong stat-line for Hill.
The Chargers are a tough matchup for running backs on the ground, but teams target their running backs against them at a top-5 rate. This is Justice Hill’s bread and butter. Look out for some dump-offs to him and some decent receiving yardage.
Jaylen Wright
Wright is slowly growing in to the Dolphins offence, and showing some competency on his touches. He has now seen 3 games in a row with at least a 20% running back rush share, and with a possible big lead on the horizon against the Patriots this week, we might see the Dolphins rotate their running backs towards the end of the game to see what the rookie’s got.
De’Vaughn Vele
Over his last 2 games, Vele has target shares of 15% and 16% in a Broncos offence that’s thriving. He’s seen route participation rates of 82% and 74% in those games too, both season-highs. Where this matchup gets exciting is upon discovery of the Raiders’ defence funnelling targets to slot wide receivers, giving up the sixth-most yards to the slot in the league this season.
Since his integration into the offence in week 5, Vele has had a 17.6% first-read target share. The team are making an effort to get him the ball, and that’ll be even more evident this week.
Adam Thielen
Thielen is expected to be back this week, and while there are a lot of unknowns around his role, I think he could be an affective piece to this Carolina offence that needs all the help it can get.
The expectation is that Thielen will assume the slot role, as he did before his injury. The emergence of Jalen Coker in that area of the field makes this a little less uncertain, but Thielen has historically been their primary slot receiver.
If this is the case, and he plays a decent number of snaps, the matchup will be good for him against Kansas City. While the Chiefs have been amazing against running backs this year, they’ve been average against receivers. Teams are targeting the slot at the 4th highest rate against them.
With the Panthers likely playing from behind for most of this one, we should expect plenty of passing attempts.
Luke Schoonmaker
Jake Ferguson was unfortunately concussed in week 11 and is likely to miss week 12. In his absence, Luke Schoonmaker stepped in as the next-man-up and had an 18% target share on the day. This wasn’t a one-off, as Ferguson also missed week 2 and in that game Schoonmaker had a 15% target share and was very effective on those targets.
Against Washington, the Cowboys are likely to have to pass a lot. Somebody needs to step up in this receiving corps, and Schoonmaker seems a solid option in Ferguson’s absence.