NFL Super Wildcard Weekend Primetime Picks
Gaelic Gridiron NFL Staff
Wow. What a year!
As the curtain comes down on the 2023–24 regular season, it gives us an opportunity to reflect on what was truly a wild autumn/winter of NFL football.
The firing of Head Coaches Arthur Smith and Ron Rivera by Atlanta and Washington [respectively] came hours after its completion, adding two head-coaching slots to the already-three vacant.
On Tuesday, it came as more than a shock to many that Mike Vrabel was relieved of his duties as head coach in Tennessee, before Pete Carroll ended his 14-year tenure as Seahawks coach on Wednesday.
As for the other 10 unfortunate franchises, a long off-season of contemplating, analysing, and rebuilding awaits.
The final loss came with none other than six-time Super Bowl champion Bill Belichick mutually parting ways with the Patriots on Thursday after an enthralling 24 years at the helm in New England.
One person that won’t be losing his job is Matt Eberflus, who’s coaching clear-out earlier in the week solidified his position in Chicago for another year.
Thanks to Bryce Young’s abysmal rookie season with Carolina, the Bears are now officially ‘on the clock’, and there’ll be rumours and speculation from now until draft night on who, what, and whether the Bears will take another chance on Justin Fields.
Expect us to delve into these questions and many more later in the spring, but for now, we’ll say Slán Go Fóill to our non-play-off contingents for this year.
We’re now befittingly at the ‘business end of the season’, as 14 teams will be vying for Super Bowl glory until that coveted 11th February date in the desert.
Play-off season is officially here, and thanks to the introduction of ’Super Wild Card Weekend’ in 2020, the post-season has a different feel to it.
That feeling spells more teams, more games, and more football!
This weekend’s card does not disappoint, so grab a cup of tea and find out who we think is making it to the divisional round and who’ll be packing their bags for an early vacation…
Browns @ Texans
Super Wild Card weekend kicks off on Saturday night with a Week 16 rematch as the Houston Texans host the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium.
The Browns won by a scoreline of 36-22 thanks to an impressive performance from veteran gunslinger Joe Flacco, who is continuing to defy the logic of an ‘aging quarterback’.
The 38-year-old has shown close to zero rust since signing on the Browns’ practice squad back in November and has replicated close to the level that helped the Baltimore Ravens capture Super Bowl XLVII almost ten years ago.
Flacco was named Super Bowl MVP that year, and many felt his best days were behind him after faltering stints with the Broncos and Jets.
Now, there are many out there who think this team can go all the way.
Cleveland’s young defense has played a major part in the team’s success, as they finished the season ranked number 1 overall despite the non-contest defeat to the Bengals last week.
Having secured their play-off berth a week prior, Kevin Stefanski was able to rest his starters and give the likes of Myles Garrett, David Njoku, and Amari Cooper some well-earned recovery time.
If the latter of that trio [Cooper] can reproduce his 265-yard scorching of the Texans’ secondary from a couple of weeks ago, then it could be a long night for this young Houston team.
The former Cowboy wideout was involved in full practice on Friday, alongside defensive juggernaut Myles Garrett, who has recovered from a hamstring strain.
Cornerback Denzel Ward is still listed as questionable, but breakout DB on the other side, Greg Newsome II, is expected to play.
Although we’ve mentioned the rematch several times already, it’s worth noting that 25-year-old Davis Mills was the man under center that day, not surefire Offensive Rookie of the Year, CJ Stroud.
Speaking of Stroud, not even the most diehard or delusional Houston Texans fan could have imagined the number two overall pick being this good.
Stroud was on course to break Andrew Luck’s rookie season pass yard record before injury but has more than made up for it by clinching the franchise’s first divisional title since 2019.
Houston is viewed by many as this season’s overachievers and now has a shot at creating more history by becoming the first Texans’ team to reach a Super Bowl this post-season.
Alongside Cleveland, DeMeco Ryan’s unit also ranks inside the top 5 on third-down percentage, meaning they know how to get teams off the field and the football back into the hands of Stroud.
Despite the injury of prominent rookie receiver Tank Dell in Week 12, third-year man Nico Collins has provided an incredible helping hand for Stroud and this offense.
The connection between the two was adamant after the 75-yard opening play touchdown that blew the roof off Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday night.
Collins’ big production on Saturday was his fifth 100+ receiving yard game of the season, and it helped Ryan’s team come out trumps against Steichen and the Colts in the most crucial of win-and-in scenarios.
The Texans will now have a chance to show off those critical survival instincts once again this weekend, and how could you bet against them doing it again?
Houston’s main injury concern is rookie Will Anderson Jr., who remains questionable due to an ankle injury, while defensive tackles Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins are also questionable to return.
We expect this to be a close one, but we’re going to side with the Texans to upset the Browns in Houston.
It’s hard to beat the same team twice, and despite Cleveland’s dominant defense, the Joe Flacco fairytale must come to an end at some point.
Why not make it for the sake of a truly outstanding talent in Stroud?
Browns 20 Texans 23
Dolphins vs. Chiefs
The second part of Saturday’s AFC Wild Card action sees another mouth-watering rematch between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium.
It might sound strange, but you can’t help but feel that both teams left a lot on the table during the regular season, which will probably leave one another disappointed heading into the play-offs.
The Chiefs ran out victors over the Dolphins by a scoreline of 21-14 in Germany back in week 9, thanks to a defensive clinic from Steve Spagnuolo’s exceptional defense.
Kansas City had the luxury of resting their starters during Week 18’s narrow win against the Chargers, having already been tied down to the 3rd seed in the AFC.
The reigning Super Bowl champions are clearly not firing on all cylinders, with receiver drops being the main talking point throughout this frustrating season for Patrick Mahomes.
Without surprise, the Chiefs lead the league with 40 offensive drops on the season but still somehow find themselves in the top 10 in most offensive categories.
The absence of a clear number one receiver and the seeming decline of star-tight end Travis Kelce have been an obvious flaw in Andy Reid’s arsenal, meaning KC has had to rely on their young defense to step up and be counted.
Rookie wideout Rashee Rice has shown glimmers of prowess but still seems miles off the once-desired Tyreek Hill, whom we’ll talk about a little later.
Mahomes, as great as he is, has struggled mightily on the field situationally this year and has never looked further from himself throughout his young career as he does now.
That being said, it’s this time of the year that Reid and company come to life, and it would be more than naive to call this team a non-runner heading into the play-offs.
The Chiefs are one of the healthier teams heading into the post-season, with receivers Kadarius Toney and Justyn Ross the only questionable players listed on Friday’s injury report.
The final regular season game saw the Miami Dolphins lose out to their fierce rivals, the Buffalo Bills, on Sunday night, meanwhile forfeiting their place atop the AFC East and slipping down to the sixth seed in the conference.
The Dolphins are now an incredible 1-11 against Josh Allen over the last twelve games, and it’s clear that a division once dominated by Brady and New England is now firmly in the hands of the former Wyoming Cowboy.
A loss meant Mike McDaniel’s team limped out on a whimper, losing three of their last five and extending the wait for a divisional title to 15 seasons, despite many sensing they had prematurely clinched it midway through the year.
Despite Tua Tagovailoa’s adamant improvement at quarterback this year, there remains the narrative that this Dolphins team is soft and will crumble when the going gets tough.
In all honesty, it’s hard to argue with that claim, as Miami is an underwhelming 1-6 vs. teams with a winning record this season.
If there is a silver lining in all of this, star receiver Tyreek Hill is back to his best after an injury worry that could have derailed the year for the Dolphins.
Tyreek was robbed of a historic return to Arrowhead back in November in a game where he only managed 62 yards, but now he has the chance to make his old team pay after denying him a lucrative contract back in 2022.
Miami’s defense is extremely beat up, with relentless pass rusher Bradley Chubb ruled out for the remainder of the season and corner Xavien Howard officially ruled out.
Jalen Ramsey had limited participation in practice, while Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert are both questionable for the offense.
It’s expected to be one of the coldest games in NFL history, and the rule usually with warm-weather teams in January is usually justified.
For this reason, we’ll side with the Chiefs to take out the Dolphins and Tua for the second time this year.
We don’t feel great about it, but if in doubt, you should always side with Patrick Mahomes.
Dolphins 19 Chiefs 27
Steelers @ Bills
Sunday’s slate kicks off with the forementioned Buffalo Bills taking on the six-time Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers at Highmark Stadium in Western New York.
Pittsburgh crept into the play-offs thanks to Tennessee’s victory over Jacksonville on Sunday, but also a road win last weekend in dreadful conditions over the Baltimore Ravens’ backups.
The main talking point from the game was the injury to star pass rusher TJ Watt, who became the first player in league history to finish the season with the most sacks on three separate occasions.
Watt suffered a grade 2 MCL sprain that’s expected to leave him on the shelf for at least two weeks, effectively ruling him out of the team’s trip to Buffalo this weekend.
The 29-year-old is undoubtedly an invaluable piece to Mike Tomlin’s defense and will leave a gaping hole on the field come Sunday, with highly rated rookie Nick Herbig expected to take his place.
Mason Rudolph’s introduction back in week 16 has seemed to spur the Steelers’ offense on, as a unit that looked helpless and out of sync with Trubisky seems to have regained confidence under the sixth-year man.
First-round pick Kenny Pickett is available after the injury he sustained against Arizona, but it seems the Steelers are going to roll with Rudolph for the foreseeable future.
The 28-year-old ranks number one around the league in completion percentage and passer rating since being named starter, which can only help his case for the job.
The Steelers will once again require a helping hand from informants Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren, who together have accumulated over 325 rush yards and 5 total TDs over the last two weeks.
A component that was once the Steelers’ weakness is now apparently their strength in the run game, and without doubt, they must show up again on Sunday should they want to progress.
TJ Watt is, of course, out for the Steelers, while Guard Isaac Seumalo did not practice on Friday, which is cause for concern.
On the upside, though, star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick is expected to play alongside inside linebacker Elandon Roberts, who has fully recovered from a minor pectoral injury.
It cannot be denied that the Bills are the hottest team in the NFL right now.
McDermott’s team has magically turned their season around when it looked more than likely they would miss out on the play-offs, having lumbered around.500 right up until the beginning of December.
Since their narrow overtime defeat to the Eagles on the road in week 13, the Bills are 5-0, including victories over the Chiefs, Cowboys, and Dolphins.
The emergence of running back James Cook has taken a lot of the workload off Josh Allen in the run game, while star receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are slowly finding the missing mojo that was absent throughout most of the year.
Despite finishing the season with 18 INTs, the importance of Allen to this team cannot be underestimated.
The 6’5′ wrecking ball is almost impossible to bring down when running at full speed and has put together an impressive run in the past month that has catapulted him into the MVP race.
Buffalo’s offense ended the season as the number one team on third-down percentage, proving that it’s difficult for a team to get off the field when they’re up against it.
The defense has also played its part, finishing inside the top 10 in total defense and the top 5 for points allowed.
Both stat lines have been majorly down to their performance over the past month, as the return of veteran safety Micah Hyde has been a major welcome to this unit.
Sunday’s win in Miami culminated in the Bills’ fourth AFC East title in a row, a streak that last occurred back between the 1987 and 1991 seasons.
During that time, Buffalo made it to two Super Bowls, losing both as part of the famous team that made it to four deciders in a row, only to come up empty-handed in each of them.
Bills Mafia will feel it’s time to end that chapter of undeniable pain in the big game, and many will feel this is their year.
The main absence for Buffalo is Gabe Davis, who is officially ruled out with a knee injury.
Despite not practicing, however, Stefon Diggs is expected to play.
As much as we want to side with Pittsburgh in keeping this game relatively close, we can’t justify it.
The Steelers are 1-10 without TJ Watt all-time, and in what’s expected to be a raucous and snowy Buffalo crowd, we expect the Bills to come out on top.
Steelers 17 Bills 30
Packers @ Cowboys
The eyes of America [and the world] will be fixated on this game as two of the country’s most popular fan bases go head-to-head at AT&T Stadium on Sunday night.
The Cowboys and Packers share an historic rivalry that includes memories that will last a lifetime, such as the ‘Dez Caught it’ game at Lambeau or the incredible throw by Rodgers to Cook in sealing the Cowboys fate back in 2017.
Not to mention the epic battles over the years at the quarterback position; from Meredith vs. Starr to Aikmen vs. Favre and Romo vs. Rodgers, this game belongs at the top of the mountain.
Dak vs. Love may not have the same ring to it, but who knows what the future holds?
Speaking of Dak, the former Mississippi State QB has enjoyed the finest year of his career to date, boasting a season high in completion percentage and passer rating.
For these reasons, many see Prescott as a viable MVP candidate and one to look out for during the post-season.
Nonetheless, the pressure is very much on Dak and head coach Mike McCarthy to deliver ‘the Boyz’ to an NFC Championship game, a feat that is considered the absolute minimum to this fanbase due to recent play-off failure.
McCarthy spent 13 long years in Green Bay beside Aaron Rodgers and co., winning a Super Bowl along the way and establishing himself as a capable offensive coach.
The emergence of star receiver Ceedee Lamb has been the catalyst for this offense, as the former Sooner has had an impressive breakout year and signalled himself out as one of the top targets in the league.
His 135 regular-season receptions left him head and shoulders above the rest of the league, while only Tyreek Hill outgained Lamb in receiving yards and touchdown grabs [and Mike Evans, 13].
Any worries surrounding the injury of Trevon Diggs earlier in the season have been snuffed out, as second-year man DaRon Bland finished the season as league leader in INTs with 9 and has proved an adequate replacement for the injured DB.
The Cowboys haven’t beaten the Packers in the play-offs since 1995, and with the series split at four apiece, they’ll want to take the reins back in that aspect.
A main concern for the Cowboys injury-wise is that of offensive linemen Zack Martin and Tyron Smith, who both did not practice leading up to Friday.
It’s fair to say that many [including Packer fans] were writing Jordan Love off after they yielded to divisional rivals Minnesota at Lambeau back in October.
LaFleur’s team was 2-5, and their season was apparently sputtering out to the point that many in Green & Gold did not believe that Love was the man to take the franchise forward.
An impressive return of 7-3, 8/10 games with a passer rating over 100 and a league low of 3 INTs since week 9 saw Jordan Love guide the Green Bay Packers to the play-offs after a year’s absence, while silencing most doubters along the way.
This was supposed to be a year of rebuilding and licking the wounds after the departure of 12, but this youthful roster has managed to knuckle down and get to work in his truancy.
After striking gold with Favre and Rodgers, it appears the Packers have struck once again and found themselves their quarterback of the future.
Love has demonstrated immense patience, pocket poise, and the ability to sling it when it needs to be slung, with a lot of credit owed to Coach LaFleur for keeping the stabilizers on long enough to allow the ex-Utah State quarterback time to sit and learn.
The young receiving core of Watson, Reed, Wicks, and Doubs is another element of this offense that Cheeseheads can be excited about, as well as rookie tight ends Kraft and Musgrave, who show continuous signs of improvement week by week.
Defensive Coordinator Joe Barry, despite his critics, held Chicago to under 220 yards of total offense and took away the element of surprise right through the 60 minutes last Sunday.
Not allowing the Bears to play spoiler in week 18 was another massive moment in the season, as this young defense will be aiming to repeat their near spotless performance, albeit against a different animal this weekend.
The Packers are expected to be relatively healthy this weekend, as the only injury worries remain corner Jaire Alexander, back AJ Dillon, and guard Elgton Jenkins.
You have to admire the boldness of Jordan Love and this young Packers team in this spot, but we’re rolling with the Cowboys here.
The season is already seen as a winner in Green Bay, while a loss in Dallas would be detrimental for Jerry Jones and the Cowboys.
Expect LaFleur’s team to keep it respectable, but Dallas’ high-power offense will be too much.
Packers 28 Cowboys 35
Rams @ Lions
Perhaps the most intriguing game on the board this week sees Matthew Stafford make his long-awaited return to Detroit to take on the Lions in a game where ‘redemption’ is probably the best story arc to use.
Stafford spent twelve years in Detroit, and it’s expected to be an emotional homecoming when both teams square off on Sunday night football.
When traded to the Rams in March 2021, many believed the 35-year-old’s best days were in the rear-view mirror and the LA cameo would be no more than a flash in the pan.
In February 2022, the Los Angeles Rams were Super Bowl champions, with Stafford under center.
An injury-plagued 2022 saw the former first-round pick lace up for nine games and sway in and out of concussion protocol, only to be eventually placed on IR in December.
This, as well as the omission of Cooper Kupp, means the Rams’ 12-loss season holds the record for the most in NFL history for a defending Super Bowl champion, a title that Sean McVay should want to forget in a hurry.
Much like Green Bay, numerous experts believed that this was a rebuilding year for McVay and the Rams, but it appears they’ll enter Super Wild-Card weekend as the true dark horses to lift the Lombardi Trophy.
Only the Cowboys and Packers have younger rosters than this team in this year’s play-offs, and without doubt LA will want to lean on the likes of rookie Puka Nacua and second-year man Kyren Williams to spearhead this offense.
The latter had the comfort of sitting out last week’s victory over the 49ers, while the former took part in breaking sixty-year-old records in receptions and receiving yards for a rookie.
Raheem Morris’ defense will need a post-season unlike its regular, as this young unit ranks below average in all defensive categories across the board.
But if star defensive player Aaron Donald can rally the troops, it may bring a version to this side of the ball we have yet to see.
Despite the few listed as having limited practice, the Rams seem to be injury-free, with guards Kevin Dotson and Joe Noteboom recovering from minor injuries.
Matthew Stafford isn’t the only one in the race with a revenge plot to practice for, as former Ram and number one pick Jared Goff also has a bone to pick with his former employers.
Goff was on the other side of that trade with the Lions back in 2021, which only thickens the plot for this fascinating contest that we can’t wait to feast our eyes on.
The 2023 Detroit Lions will go down in history as one of the finest the city has ever seen, as they have managed to achieve something that no other Lions team has ever achieved: win the NFC North.
Dan Campbell’s unbelievable grit and determination have seen this team go from a woeful 3-13 in his maiden year as head coach to an impressive 12-5 in the space of 2 years.
The rise of Amon-Ra St. Brown as a legitimate top receiver has been a welcoming one, with rookie running back Jamyr Gibbs and tight end Sam LaPorta adding valuable assets to the offense.
LaPorta’s fitness has been a major talking point this week, and Campbell’s decision to play his starters despite the fact they were already in during week 18 has seemed to backfire somewhat.
The Lions’ defense ranks second in the league when it comes to stopping the run, which will give the Rams something to think about when handing the ball off to Williams in the backfield.
Although Coach Campbell will receive the majority of credit, offensive coordinator Ben Johnson has become the most wanted man for NFL team owners that are searching for a head coach.
The 37-year-old reportedly turned down the job in Carolina earlier in the year to stay in Detroit, and it’s hard to begrudge him on that front.
No doubt, when the season is over, Johnson will come under huge fire from teams that want him to fill those positions, but for now, he’ll be concentrating on bagging the Lions their first ever Super Bowl appearance.
Detroit’s injury list is a slight cause for concern, with star rookie Sam LaPorta still listed as questionable on Friday night.
The conclusion to play starters has resulted in Kalif Raymond being ruled out, with back tight-end James Mitchell also ruled out with a hand injury.
Expect this game to be an absolute thriller, with the Rams coming out on top.
For some reason, we just trust Sean McVay more than we do Dan Campbell in this spot, and the loss of LaPorta is one that could come back to haunt this Lions team.
We feel you get a better coach, a better quarterback, and better-skilled positions.
Rams 31 Lions 30
Eagles @ Buccaneers
The conclusion of Super Wild Card weekend sees the out-of-form Philadelphia Eagles make the long trip south to face the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The Eagles are coming off an embarrassing week 18 defeat to divisional rival New York Giants that effectively lost them the division and have looked almost unrecognizable from the team that made it to the Super Bowl almost twelve months ago.
Head coach Nick Sirianni appears to be on the hot seat after a six-game stretch that saw his team go 1-5 to finish the season, which included losses to the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.
It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly where and why this team has struggled so mightily, but you can’t help but notice the gaping standards on offense since the play-calling brilliance of Shane Steichen left the building.
Steichen was an integral part of Philly’s success last year, and his coach of the year-caliber season in Indianapolis was an indication of his importance to the organization.
Quarterback Jalen Hurts has clearly regressed as a result, with the former Oklahoma quarterback averaging a passer rating of 74 since their win over Buffalo in Week 12 [one of the lowest in the league during that time].
There is speculation that Hurts has been dealing with an injury most of the year, and that theory was proven right when he was forced off with a finger injury against New York last weekend.
Star wideout AJ Brown also hobbled off with an injury after a collision during Sunday’s game, which leaves the likes of DeVonta Smith, Quez Watkins, and veteran Julio Jones to pick up the pieces alongside TE Dallas Goedert in the pass game.
Although the offense comes under fire for their performances, the real story has been the decline of the defense.
Thanks to the departure of Johnathan Gannon, the Eagles defense has been, to say the least, abysmal this year.
Philadelphia ranks 26th in total, 31st in pass and third-down, and 30th in redzone defense, which is simply not good enough when you’re competing for Lombardi trophies.
The Eagles will need to see a drastic improvement on both sides of the ball this weekend if they’re to blow past Baker and the Bucs.
AJ Brown remains doubtful, but running back D’Andre Swift is expected to make his return after illness.
The 9-8 Bucs blew a huge sigh of relief on Sunday as they scraped by the woeful Carolina Panthers in a scoreline of 9-0 to capture the NFC South for the third year running.
Todd Bowles’ team looked extremely lustreless in the win and begs the question: if they hadn’t been facing the worst team in the league, would they even be here right now?
Nonetheless, they are, and thanks to the NFL’s seeding rules, they’ve snagged themselves a home play-off game with every chance to take a major scalp in week 1 of the post-season.
Three Chase McLaughlin field goals were enough to send the Bucs through, but in all honesty, it wasn’t pretty.
Against his old team, Baker was able to dig deep and finish the game with no turnovers, which culminated in a season high in pass yards, completion percentage, and touchdowns thrown for the former number one pick.
Baker’s early injury left the door open for Carolina to play spoiler, but the Tampa defense [to their credit] was able to keep the rudderless Panthers team at bay and off the scoreboard for the entire game.
The 28-year-old’s overall performances this year have been above expectations, but he couldn’t have done it without the ever-reliant Mike Evans, who led the league in TDs caught alongside Hill with 13.
The game itself was probably the perfect description of not only the Bucs as a team, but the entire NFC South throughout the season.
There can be no denying that this division owns the tag for the worst in football, but the tiebreaker sees the Buccaneers get in over the Saints, who also finished at 9-8.
The major bright spark, particularly over the past few weeks, has been that defense.
Todd Bowles has continued to prove he is one of the best in business when it comes to his side of the ball, as the Bucs finished in the top 5 in defending the run and redzone defense this season.
If there is a department to work on defending the pass, only the Chargers, Commanders, and their opponents this weekend, the Eagles, rank below them in that class.
The Buccaneers will be hoping Chris Godwin is available to play Monday, while Baker Mayfield is ready to go after the injury scare last week.
This might surprise you, but our final Super Wild-Card pick is going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The way this Eagles team has performed over the last month has been nothing short of disastrous, and with injuries to key players, it feels like the Bucs could throw a spanner in the works.
With rumours circulating that Sirianni could lose his job with a defeat here, it very well could be curtains for last year’s Super Bowl runner-up.
Eagles 14 Buccaneers 17