Gaelic Gridiron’s NFL Week 16 Picks
Seven Sunday Picks
We’re just three weekends of football away from the NFL playoff season and the standings in both Conferences are beginning to shake out, but there are still some huge questions to be answered. We might not have the answers to whether your favourite team will make the playoffs, but we can point you in the direction of some tasty picks. There was no social media video this week, but below you’ll still find the rationale behind our ‘Five Sunday Locks’ and an additional two player stat picks to get the juices flowing. There’s a three-legged accumulator suggestion to wrap the Sunday picks too, so let’s get into the good stuff.
Spreads
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos: Over 47.0 points (10/11)
- These are two teams that are on powerful runs, sitting at the top of their respective divisions. With the Broncos winning eleven in a row and the Jags on a five game winning streak of their own.
- The Jaguars are averaging 26.9 points per game on offense, while the Broncos are averaging 24.4 points per game on the same side of the ball.
- Five of the last seven Jags games have blown this points total out of the water, with two of the last three for the Broncos doing the same.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: Over 45.5 points (10/11)
- This divisional match-up could be make or break for the Bucs and Panthers, with both teams sitting at 7-7 going into the final three games of the season and having to play each other twice.
- The Bucs have been quite poor on the defensive side of the ball this season, allowing 25.3 points per game and a lot of their games have fallen into shootout territory. Seven of their fourteen games this season have gone over 48.5 points and their offense is back to full health now with Bucky Irving, Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka all returning to form in their 29-28 loss to the Falcons last week.
- Seven of the Panthers games this season have also gone over this total; so they are not opposed to a shootout either.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Dallas Cowboys: Under 50.0 points (10/11)
- The Chargers have one of the best defenses in the NFL, allowing just 20.3 points per game to opponents. They love to grind out low scoring games and frustrate their opposition, as we saw in their last two victories against the Chiefs and Eagles.
- Los Angeles have only had two games go for over fifty points this season and despite playing a Cowboys team who are strong on the offensive side of the ball, I can see the Chargers heading to Dallas and muddying this one up to frustrate the hosts.
- The Cowboys were eliminated from playoff contention with the Eagles clinching the NFC East last night, making this game a tough one to gear themselves up for.
Touchdown Scorers
Chalk Pick: Bucky Irving (27/20), Buccaneers @ Panthers
- Bucky Iriving has played just seven games this season due to injuries to his foot and shoulder, but he has still managed to put up four total touchdowns on the season.
- Before last week’s loss to the Falcons, Irving had scored in three straight games for the Bucs.
- The Panthers have allowed 17 total touchdowns on the ground this season and Irivng not only poses a threat in the running game, but also through the air.
Outsider: Chris Olave (8/5), Jets @ Saints
- The Jets have allowed 25 passing touchdowns through fourteen games this season and over the last two weeks their defense lay down against the Jags and Dolphins.
- The Saints have been rumbling towards the end of this season with a point to prove. They have won three of their last five games, with all three wins coming in key match-ups against divisional opponents.
- Chris Olave has caught six touchdown passes this season, with three of these coming in his last five games. Olave has developed a strong connection with new Saints starting quarterback Tyler Shough and I expect the pair to take advantage of a weak Jets secondary.
Player Stats
Jalen Coker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Buccaneers @ Panthers
- Jalen Coker has had back to back breakout weeks in his last two games for Carolina. The second-year wideout caught his only two touchdown passes of the season over the last two weeks, as he went for 74 and 60 yards against strong Rams and Saints defenses.
- The Bucs allow the second most passing yards per game in the NFL with 264.5 allowed on average.
- Coker has hit this receiving total in three of his last four games and the Panthers will be looking to use his explosive speed as a weapon against a weak Tampa Bay secondary.
Devon Achane Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (20/23), Bengals @ Dolphins
- Achane has been one of the few bright sparks of this Dolphins season, hitting this rushing total in four of his last five games and going for well over 100 yards on the ground in three of these four outings.
- This week the Dolphins are coming up against the worst rushing defense in the league, with the Bengals allowing an average of 157.9 yards per game on the ground this season.
- The Dolphins will rely heavily on Achane’s running ability today, with rookie quarterback Quinn Ewers getting his first start for the team.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Sunday for a 6/1 combined price.
Leg 1: Devon Achane Over 82.5 Rushing Yards (20/23), Bengals @ Dolphins
Leg 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Carolina Panthers: Over 45.5 points (10/11)
Leg 3: Jalen Coker Over 38.5 Receiving Yards (10/11), Buccaneers @ Panthers
Let’s roll into the festive period after cashing some bets in what is the last weekend of football before Christmas.