NFL Week 14 Picks
Seven Sunday Picks
Let’s get some winners lined up for this Sunday in the NFL. Below you’ll find the rationale behind the five picks highlighted in our social media ‘Five Sunday Locks’ segment and an additional two for good measure. There’s a 6/1 accumulator suggestion at the end of this article too, we’ve gone one for two on these so far – time to make that two for three this Sunday!
Spreads
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 points (10/11)
- Both teams are coming off huge wins last week, with the Bears beating Philly 24-15 on Black Friday and the Packers beating Detroit 31-24 on Thanksgiving.
- The two sides are top ten in points scored per game with Green Bay racking up 24.5 on average and Chicago notching 26.1.
- The Bears allow the eighth most points per game with 25.6 given up to opponents on average.
Indianapolis Colts -1.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars (10/11)
- This is a must win for Indy following a loss to divisional rival Texans last weekend. Should they overcome the Jags, the Colts would jump back into first place in the AFC South and hold an all-important tiebreaking victory.
- Jacksonville have won their last three straight, but this season has been far from convincing from quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who has been his worst statistically since his rookie season and I foresee this Sunday being a return to earth moment for the Jaguars.
- The Colts have the second highest scoring offense in the league, putting up 29.8 points per game. The Jaguars have only scored 30+ points three times this season, so if this turns into a shootout I don’t see them having the firepower to keep up with Indy’s offense.
Cleveland Browns -4.0 vs Tennessee Titans (10/11)
- The Titans have lost the most games in the NFL, with eleven this season. In those eleven losses they have only been within four points of their opponent once.
- Cleveland are not exactly world-beaters but at home this season they have beaten the Packers and Dolphins, while losing by only one score to the Ravens, Vikings and Bengals – all teams that are on a much higher level than the Titans.
- The Titans have scored the least points per game of any team in the NFL this season with 14.2. The team has the worst net points total in the league at -158 through twelve games.
Touchdown Scorers
Chalk Pick: Kyren Williams (4/6), Rams @ Cardinals
- Williams has scored ten touchdowns in thirteen games this season, with five scores in his last five.
- The Cardinals have allowed an average of one rushing touchdown per game this season.
- Last season Kyren scored on the ground in both of his appearances against Arizona, bringing his career total to five touchdowns in five games against the Rams’ NFC West opponent.
Outsider: Alec Pierce (2/1), Colts @ Jaguars
- Pierce took a while to get into the endzone for the first time this season, but he has now scored two in his last three games.
- The Jaguars have allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season and boast the best rushing defense in the league allowing just 82.4 yards per game on the ground and seven scores. Through the air is how the Colts will need to attack this Jacksonville team.
- Pierce caught a touchdown pass in both of his games against the Jags last season.
Player Stats
Daniel Jones Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (21/20), Colts @ Jaguars
- As noted above, the Jags rushing defense is very strong so the Colts game plan should utilise Daniel Jones’ arm as much as possible, especially in the red zone.
- Another point mentioned above is the presence of the Jaguars’ leaky passing defense which has given up 22 touchdowns and 244.1 yards per game.
- Jones has thrown for two or more touchdowns in six of his last eight games for Indy, including in both of his last two games against tough Texans and Chiefs defenses.
James Cook Over 98.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bengals @ Bills
- Cook has gone for 100+ yards in four of his last six games and a total of seven times this season through twelve games.
- The Bengals are allowing the second most rushing yards per game in the league with 153.3 (Bills are third with 141.3, so expect a lot of running the ball in this one). Cook averages 102.3 rushing yards per game against all defenses and this figure tends to spike massively when he gets it going, having games of 216, 144 and 132 ground yards this season.
- Sunday’s game is going to be played in below freezing temperatures in Buffalo, with snow a possibility. Games played in these conditions often lead to teams utilising their backs and run game a lot more heavily.
Acca Suggestion
In the below accumulator, I’ve put together the three legs that I feel are absolute bankers this Sunday for a tasty 6/1 combined price. Let’s get back on a winning run with this three-legger.
Leg 1: Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers: Over 44.5 points (10/11)
Leg 2: Cleveland Browns -4.0 vs Tennessee Titans (10/11)
Leg 3: James Cook Over 98.5 Rushing Yards (10/11), Bengals @ Bills
Total Odds: 6/1
Best of luck with your bets this weekend and enjoy another Sunday filled with RedZone drama.