NFL Week 16 Prime Time Picks
By Daibhóg McKee
NFL Week 16: Prime Time Picks
TNF: Saints (7-7) @ Rams (7-7)
Week 16 begins in Los Angeles, as the New Orleans Saints take on the Rams at So-Fi Stadium, with both teams hoping to strengthen their play-off ambitions.
The fixture marks only the third time the two teams have met since the famous NFC Championship ‘no-call’, which seen the Rams come out victorious in a 26-23 OT win at the Superdome.
The Saints are hoping to extend their winning run to three when they make the journey out west, and due to the unarguable lacklustre quality of the NFC South, they’re still within touching distance of claiming that coveted play-off berth after a two-year absence.
Derek Carr produced one of his best starts as Saints quarterback with a 3 TD performance last Sunday, and it could not have come at a better time.
The former Raider remained turnover-free for the first time in over a month during their 24-6 victory over the Giants, but the continuing exclusion of Chris Olave thanks to an ankle injury casts an unfortunate shadow.
The star wideout was listed as DNP (did not participate) on the Saints website on Monday, but still has a chance to prove his fitness before Thursday’s LA showdown.
Should the former first-round pick remain sidelined, Dennis Allen’s team will once again have to lean on their defense, who avoided giving up a touchdown for the second consecutive week.
There is also remaining doubt whether star defensive-end Cameron Jordan will return due to his ankle injury, however, back-up Tanoh Kpassagnon made more than up for his omission after chipping in with three sacks on Danny DeVito on Sunday.
Alvin Kamara will also have to play an important role, after he became the only Saint to ever record seven (7) 1000+ scrimmage yards in a season, along with veteran Jimmy Graham who remains an always reliable target at the age of 37.
The Rams are also coming into Thursday night in red-hot form, despite a spirited overtime defeat against the current #1 seed in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens, only a couple of weeks ago.
McVay’s men were able to bounce back with a 28-20 victory over the Washington Commanders this past Sunday, with this offense looking impressive as ever.
The resurgence of former Offensive Player of the Year Cooper Kupp means fellow receiver Puka Nacua did not have to carry as much of the workload, along with Kyren Williams, who is potentially setting down a marker as the league’s best running back.
The ex-Notre Dame player is averaging just under 100yds rushing per game this season and is proving Sean McVay’s offensive prowess in the run game once again.
Albeit an undeniably young defense, LA’s inexperienced unit are playing as well as you would expect under Raheem Morris’ guidance, as they remain middle of the pack in nearly all defensive stat categories.
In contrast with their New Orleans’ opponents, the Rams’ injury list remains relatively low, with target Tutu Atwell set to return after leaving concussion protocol, along with DB Ahkello Witherspoon, who participated in limited practice earlier in the week.
Despite the Saints impressive defensive momentum over the past two weeks, it’s important to note their opponents in that time have been the #30 and #31 scoring offenses.
This week they’re coming up against a completely different kettle of fish, as 15-year man Matt Stafford is on another level to 5 ft 8’ Bryce Young and undrafted rookie Danny DeVito.
With a healthier overall roster, and a more dynamic, action-packed offense, we’re expecting the Rams to come out with a victory on home soil, which could leave them on the cusp of an NFC play-off appearance.
Rams win comfortably in the end.
Prediction: Saints 13 Rams 28
Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)
We kick-off the second successive week of Saturday football with the Pittsburgh Steelers hosting their old AFC North rivals; the Cincinnati Bengals.
This fixture has been the sight of some great quarterback matchups in the past; from Big Ben vs. Palmer to Bradshaw vs. Anderson, only to name a few.
This week, it’s Mason Rudolph vs. Jake Browning in a Steel City Showdown.
Albeit not the quarterback matchup we would have predicted at the start of the season, a loss for either team could call curtains on one’s desired play-off hopes.
Since their week 12 matchup that saw the Steelers come out with a 16-10 win at Paul Brown Stadium, both teams have trended in completely different directions (not necessarily the directions you would have expected) …
The Burrow-less Bengals seemed destined to finish last in their division after Browning’s lacklustre performance that day.
However, the former Washington Husky has proved many doubters wrong by boosting a record of 3-0 since, meanwhile inflicting damaging losses to fellow play-off contenders in Jacksonville and Indianapolis.
Browning has produced an outstanding 112.6 passer rating during the three-game winning streak, proving that despite the loss of a terrific talent at the key position, the coaching is what matters most.
The latest of those victories came after they scored an awe-inspiring three touchdowns in the final quarter to take the component Minnesota Vikings to overtime, only for Evan McPherson to slot over the winner from 29yds, to send ‘Whodey nation’ into bedlam.
The defense has also played a major role in helping this team progress to 8-6, as key defensive star Trey Hendrickson surpassed his season high in sacks with the 1-and-a-half he inflicted on Nick Mullens last week.
The former Saint is becoming a nightmare for offensive linemen to deal with and will be hoping to extend his streak with at least one sack a game to six in a row, a feat he has only managed once at this stage in his career.
The opportunity to not only enhance their own play-off aspirations with a win, but to all-but end their (perhaps) most loathed rivals’ post-season hopes, would be too good to turn down.
They may have to do it without Ja’Marr Chase though, who suffered a sprained shoulder joint during the win, leaving the 2021 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year more than questionable heading into Saturday’s game.
Browning himself is also carrying a knock to his right forearm but took full part in practice during the week, meaning he is more than ready to go for Saturday.
Their opponents on the other hand, appear to be all at sea.
The Pittsburgh Steelers are coming off a devastating loss to the Indianapolis Colts after they gave up 30 unanswered points to coach of the year candidate Shane Steichen last week, which sees them slump to 10th in the AFC seedings.
The defeat means it’s the sixth season in a row that the Steelers have lost three games in succession at any point during the season, a record Mike Tomlin will certainly want to forget in a hurry.
Despite his critics, without question the loss of starting quarterback Kenny Pickett has hampered this team on the offensive side of the ball, after the firing of Matt Canada seemed to spur them on quickly afterwards.
The run game doesn’t appear to be functioning as it was only a couple of weeks ago, with Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris only combining for 77yds on the ground against the Indy defense on Saturday past.
Mitchell Trubisky has also proved surplus to requirements during his two-game stint, meaning the Steelers will now turn to 3rd string quarterback Mason Rudolph to guide them through this rough-patch.
The foregoing Johnny Unitas Golden Arm winner backed up Big Ben during the 2019 season and has become a reliable asset to Mike Tomlin’s team when called upon.
Pittsburgh’s defense remains a difficult obstacle for any team to navigate still, with TJ Watt leading the league in sacks (16) on the year, proving the point that Tomlin had when he called his star pass-rusher the “best player on the planet”, an obscure one to argue against.
Despite Pickett’s limited reps in practice, he remains out, while the game-statuses of Minkah Fitzpatrick, Isaac Seumalo and Najee Harris, who all sat out of practice for much of this week, are still undecided.
Regardless of what we’ve written, it might surprise you that we’re going for Pittsburgh to win in this one.
By law of average, we feel like they’re due a win, and Cincy are due a loss.
The margins of error for the Steelers are so small, they cannot afford to lose. And we don’t like betting on teams that can’t afford to lose.
Steelers win. Just.
Prediction: Bengals 16 Steelers 17
Bills (8-6) @ Chargers (5-9)
Saturday Night Football culminates with the inform Buffalo Bills facing off against a Herbert-less Chargers team, that probably cannot wait for the season to end.
In a game where they arguably outplayed the Eagles for large spots, the Bills AFC play-off chances nosedived to 42% after the heart-wrenching OT defeat in Philadelphia just under a month ago.
Now, Josh Allen and company are regarded as the team to watch out in the AFC for many media figures, thanks to the highly impressive triumphs over adversary Mahomes and MVP lead-candidate, Dak Prescott.
The recipe of success must lie with the 6 ft 4’ quarterback from Wyoming and the fact that the Bills are the #1 team in the NFL on third down conversion percentage, succeeding 49.16% of the time when their backs are against the wall.
Allen’s ability to avoid the sack and extend plays with his feet, particularly when push comes to shove will never cease to amaze us, and the former 1st round pick is finally managing to find his feet after a frustrating start to the 2023 season.
Although Allen will deservedly get many of the plaudits, the performance of back James Cook has been nothing short of sublime as of late, as the fourth-year man accumulated nearly 350 scrimmage yards and 3 TDs over the two-game stretch.
The production of Cook in not only the receiving end, but also on the ground, means Josh Allen now has a viable run game, which is something that has been lacking in western New York since the days of Shady McCoy.
McDermott’s defense is also really starting to sharpen their teeth, as the losses of the incalculable Matt Milano at middle linebacker and star-corner Tre’Davious White earlier in the year seemed to really do a number on this unit.
The ability to nullify the #1 scoring offense in Dallas this past Sunday is bound to have silenced some of the doubters however, and the eventual return of safety Micah Hyde after his neck stinger will only add to that arsenal over the upcoming weeks.
In other injury news, man of the moment James Cook has had to withdraw from practice due to illness this week, meanwhile tight-ends Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid both featured in some capacity, as all three are expected to be game time decisions.
On the other end of the spectrum, we have the Los Angeles Chargers, who decided that enough was enough on Friday and made the decision to fire head coach Brandon Staley after 2-and-a-bit years at the helm.
The decision came as no surprise after they were dismantled by divisional foes, the Las Vegas Raiders, a team that had failed to score a single point at home the week prior.
The Spanos family will now begin the search for their new head coach, with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh very much in the rumour mill to take over in LA.
As for now, outside linebacker coach Giff Smith set to take reigns as interim for the remainder of the 2023 season.
Speaking of the remainder of the season, a man the Chargers will be without… is Justin Herbert.
The former Oregon Duck has undergone surgery of the fractured index finger on his right throwing hand this past Tuesday, meaning it will be 28-year-old Easton Stick stepping in under center for the remaining three games.
It is also expected that wide-receiver Keenan Allen will sit out the rest too, as his heel injury has left him sidelined for the foreseeable future.
Despite the defense being extremely solid on paper, their performance on the field this year has been nothing short of atrocious, allowing the most pass yards and being bottom five in almost every major defensive category.
There’s probably not much left to say on the Chargers, apart from the fact that they’re probably a shoo-in for a higher draft pick now that the franchise has clearly written off the rest of the season.
For this reason, Bills to rout.
Prediction: Bills 30 Chargers 3
Cowboys (10-4) @ Dolphins (10-4)
The final two games to preview this week are potential Super Bowl matchups, that, in all fairness, would not be sniffed at come February.
The first of those is between two momentously decorated franchises that would potentially blow the roof off Allegiant Stadium; the 10-4 Dallas Cowboys vs. the 10-4 Miami Dolphins.
The pair not only resemble based on their historic levels, but also share a lot of the same qualities in today’s NFL.
Both are top 5 in many of the offensive passing categories, including; passing completion percentage, passing yards, passing TDs and 1st down completion percentage through the air, meaning both are extremely sufficient when leaning on their quarterbacks.
The Cowboys’ five-game win streak was snapped by Buffalo on Sunday, as Dak, who is playing the best football of his career since his rookie year, and that high-powered offense could simply not get to grips with each other.
CeeDee Lamb, who is in the midst of his best stretch as an NFL player, was shut down comprehensively by the Bills improving defense, meanwhile solid tight-end Jake Ferguson was also put under wraps quite easily.
It’s clear that the Cowboys are possibly the best team in the league when playing at AT&T Stadium, under a dome and when everything around is going according to script, but Coach McCarthy wants his team to be much more than that.
The Super Bowl winner said after losing that his team will have to play much better during road games should they want to progress to that next level, as their undefeated home form is evened out by their average 3-4 record outside of Dallas.
Another L added to that resume this weekend could be detrimental to the Cowboys’ Super Bowl hopes, and they’ll want to even that out for the third time this season.
Thanks to the Seattle Seahawks win over Philly on Monday night however, ‘Dem Boyz’ remain atop the NFC East and have now clinched a play-off spot, with still the marginal opportunity of that coveted #1 seed in the conference hanging by the balance.
The Cowboys are hoping to have WR Brandin Cooks back in the lineup after missing out last week, meanwhile there are no other major injury worries ahead of Sunday’s mega clash.
The Dolphins are coming off a comprehensive 30 point shut out win against a sorry New York Jets team on Sunday, having suffered an embarrassing home loss to Will Levis’ Titans a week prior.
League leader in passing yards, Tua Tagovailoa was able to spearhead the win by throwing 21/24 for 224 and a single TD.
With the absence of Tyreek Hill, the ‘Phins needed another to step up in his place, and Jaylen Waddle duly obliged, whisking up 8 receptions for 142yds and a TD to go with it.
The former Crimson Tide star can often be overlooked in an offense alongside Hill, Achane and so forth, but managed to grab the occasion with both hands, quite literally.
Another we must mention is Raheem Mostert, who made NFL history at Sun Life after breaking the 20 total TD mark.
The first of his two scores saw him break the Dolphins’ single season record for total touchdowns scored, previously held by receiver Mark Clayton (18), while the second was an all-league milestone.
Mostert’s 20 total touchdowns make him the third undrafted player since 1967 to record at least 20 touchdowns in a season, joining fellow RB’s Austin Ekeler in 2021 and Priest Holmes in 2002 & 2003.
Even though it was against a Jets team that rank dead last in many offensive categories, the defense saw OLB Bradley Chubb bag himself 3 sacks, while safety Brandon Jones picked off Trevor Siemian twice to cap off a perfect clean sheet that was mightily needed.
In the end, it was the perfect spot for Mike McDaniel’s’ team to get back on track, and they certainly did.
But the injury gods are not smiling on Miami right now…
With regards to Hill, it’s unknown whether he’ll suit up against this Dallas defense, as he was missing from practice on Monday and Tuesday, while both running backs Achane and record-breaking Mostert were listed under DNP as well.
For that reason, we’re siding with Dallas in this one.
The Cowboys need a bounce back spot of their own and a loss here would potentially see them forfeit the number one spot in the east.
Boyz to win and keep their dreams of hosting a first NFC Championship game since 1995.
Prediction: Cowboys 28 Dolphins 24
MNF: Ravens (11-3) @ 49ers (11-3)
Without doubt, we leave the best to last, as both #1 seeds clash to see who can submit their claim to be called best in the league once and for all… for now anyways.
As both the Ravens and 49ers sit at 11-3, there is every chance that these two will be the teams that are jetting off to Vegas come early February to square off in Super Bowl LVIII.
Despite the number one seed’s rightful claim as best in the league, the top two have only met in our finale 14 times during the Super Bowl era, with the latest coming last year.
So, it’s not the be all and end all, but it certainly helps.
The Ravens are at an all-time high right now and have won four in a row, with the most impressive of those coming at home to a resilient Rams team.
In a potential game of the year spot, quarterback Lamar Jackson showed glimpses of his MVP season, throwing for 300+ yds and 3 TDs.
This was then followed up by a well-earned road win to the Jags last Sunday night, although his stat line only read 171 yds through the air.
Point is, Lamar can beat you in so many ways, whether it’s with his arm, his feet or even his football IQ, which probably shows why he’s so unique in comparison to other quarterbacks.
Despite losing the most integral part of the offense in tight-end Mark Andrews, the former number 32 overall pick has elevated the likes of Isaih Likely and Gus Edwards into major players on Todd Monken’s unit.
The absence of Andrews has also allowed non-other than veteran Odell Beckham Jr. to slowly but surely resurrect his career to a point where none of us thought was possible, meanwhile 1st rounder Zay Flowers is developing into a grade A wide receiver.
Not only is the offense humming, but Harbaugh’s defense is holding opponents to 5.6 passing yards per play, which is best in the league by a half point to second place.
The addition of Roquan Smith from Chicago last year is proving better by the day, as the sixth-year man has been the driving force behind this corps becoming the second-best defense overall, behind divisional foes, the Cleveland Browns.
The Ravens’ injury concerns are creeping up on them however, with forementioned Flowers and OBJ having missed practice on Tuesday, however, Harbaugh announced that there was “no concern” regarding the former’s game availability for Monday night.
Providing they stay healthy throughout the week; they’ll have close to a full outfit travelling to Santa Clara for Monday night’s showdown.
Their opponents are nonother than the San Francisco 49ers, who need no introduction when it comes to offensive initiative.
The Niners are now favourites to lift what would be the franchises’ first Lombardi trophy since 1995, and it’s mostly down to the form of the best running back in the game, Christian McCaffrey.
The son of three-time Super Bowl winner Ed, McCaffrey certainly has championship pedigree and is in line to become the first non-Quarterback to win the MVP since Adrian Peterson back in 2012.
Brock Purdy is another story all-together, as the former Mr. Irrelevant is continuing to shut doubters up week-by-week and is truly banishing the tag that he’s a ‘system quarterback’ under a Shanahan spell.
Despite having the least amount of passing attempts of all starting QBs, Purdy ranks 1st in passing TDs, 1st in passer rating and 2nd in pass yards in the league, only behind Tua.
The likes of Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk, Jennings and Juszczyk, and the rest of the breathless talent at his disposal, it’s easy to understand that even a half decent quarterback would look legendary in this scheme, but you must give Purdy the credit he deserves.
After the hiring of former defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans to the Texans, there was a point where we thought this Niners defense would fall off a cliff… we should have known better.
With stars such as Fred Warner, Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, along with the addition of former pro-bowler Chase Young, means they’ve been able to continue the great groundwork set by Ryans.
In injury news, Shanahan said the statuses of Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrave, and Elijah Mitchell are all up in the air for now, though WR Juan Jennings could miss out due to concussion protocol.
Ravens star-corner Marlon Humphrey mentioned on his podcast proclaimed that has ‘no respect for anyone’ on this Niners roster.
We feel those comments might come back to bite him after this one, as we’re picking the Niners to come out in this battle of the goliaths.
They’ll win the battle, but will they win the war? We’ll find out in February…
Prediction: Ravens 19 49ers 31
Other Games:
Colts 21 Falcons 19
Packers 27 Panthers 13
Browns 20 Texans 23
Lions 30 Vikings 17
Commanders 13 Jets 10
Seahawks 20 Titans 21
Jaguars 13 Buccaneers 24
Cardinals 24 Bears 27
Patriots 7 Broncos 23
Raiders 10 Chiefs 31
Giants 6 Eagles 33